I’ve got the Massachusetts state house, but the Met beats me easily.
I dunno guys. My living room is pretty great. I’ve never voted anywhere else, and with any luck I never will.
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My library is an early voting location on October 31.
Guess who just announced a campaign stop at the event center next door on the same day 
Maybe I’d be happy if it was Kamala. Instead we get to flood the parking lot with Trump supporters.
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Less than 1 in 1000.
Not a good analogy.
The thing is, though, when was the last year that something like a newspaper endorsement changed anyone’s mind?
It was like pre-9/11 that everyone was either a lib who read NYT and Wapo, or was someone who called them rags and assumed everything they said was a lie and they should vote the opposite of any endorsements
Bezos got some kickbacks for nothing
Not a good poster
Meaningless without knowing previous early voting gender gaps
The only stats I’ve seen comparing early voting across recent years is that there’s way more GOP early voters than before
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lol way fucking higher.
So what’s the number?
Assuming he wins, like 1:50. Maybe better.
I have to be reading this wrong, but I keep going back through the convo and not figuring it out. You’re saying he gets a third term 50 out of 51 times? Maybe more?
I assume me means a 1/50 chance? In which case, okay, estimating small numbers is hard, I’m not an expert, who knows, but we agree it is quite unlikely.
If he means a 50/51 chance then lol.
No I’m saying 1 out of 50.
2% is not a small chance.
Like 1/1000 might be too low, fine. Let’s put it this way:
Assuming a trump win (vomit), him not finishing a second term is vastly more likely than him starting a third term.
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To be clear I think you are off on the high side but that’s much more reasonable than I thought you were going to say based on your other posts so meh.
I feel like a lot of the difference is that I don’t actually think he is even interested in a third term at all and if he managed to seize the kind of power that would make that possible (2% chance?) then he would use it to install a handpicked successor.
You have learned nothing about Trump in a decade if you think he gives a flying fuck who his successor is.
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I think most of his motivation for even running this time is a combo of avoiding legal accountability and exacting revenge and upon accomplishing that he would be happy to have a successor that would (a) not undo that and (b) allow him to claim a win.
This is all assuming he is alive and his brain hasn’t been 100% Swiss cheesed by then which based on his current performances is far from guaranteed.