NV is negative in that we either don’t know what’s going on or it’s bad. And then in the case that it’s bad, whatever correlation that has to the rest of the race.
But the magnitude of the badness is probably that she went from 50/50 in NV to like 40/60.
It’s kinda depressing that NV got flipped so easily by the no tax on tips thing that’s never ever actually happening, but it does prove that in future elections, Democrats really just need to promise everyone a pony and free sprinkles on everyone’s ice cream for life or something, and they’re set.
Here’s some work:
I already posted my map and prediction above.
NV seems lost based on what we know
AZ seems correlated, so I’m going to put that in
GA ain’t letting Kamala win no matter what given all the rules they’ve changed
NC seems bleak
I’ve got dems holding everything else, which means Kamala wins 270-268. But I think NE is going to fuck with things, SC will let them and Trump wins it in the House.
I mean for all your “lol we’re fucked what the fuck is wrong with you people” rhetoric, you’re literally predicting a (close) EV win and assuming that shenanigans will follow and succeed (which isn’t the worst assumption, but still). The overall doomerism doesn’t really jibe with your actual predictions.
Well, I don’t know what to to tell you. I’m predicting a Trump win going down like that, which will be just about the most painful way it can go. There are other ways of course. In the end, I see him ship and I’m prepared for at least 4+ years of discontent (and that’s putting it mildly). If that’s not good enough for you to justify my feeling doomed, I apologize.
I don’t think that “no tax on tips” plausibly maps onto the (potentially) bad looking early voting. The early voting is bad specifically because people in middle-of-nowhere NV are voting at a higher rate than people in Clark.
Yea I’m not ready to throw out NV, and I honestly don’t think they can do anything about changing the Nebraska, they already had people in that state refusing when they tried the other day and I just don’t see it happening when it would be so clearly bullshit at that point, it’s one thing to change it before but after eh
Yeah I hear you, was really just throwing out commentary about the state of NV in general and why it’s even in play.
Wut? Rasmussen closing at the end? Curious.
The answer in NV is we don’t know what’s going on. Period.
Demos with large numbers of people moving to NV have changed too much in the past 4 years to have any clue. Even 1/3 being Trump heavy would potentially be enough to tilt the election in Trump’s favor and that is for sure on the table even though most people in NV do not wear politics on their sleeves. It is a very very very low yard sign state.
Honestly, I feel somewhat doomed regardless. The sheer fact that half the country is this gullible, stupid, complete assholes (take your pick) is fucking depressing and gives me a feeling of hopelessness. Even if Harris squeaks out a win. Nothing short if a Harris landslide will improve my moral
I think we might see a much closer Day of between the reds and blues than we have in the last few cycles. If Day off can move closer to 1:1 we are in pretty good shape
What would you even consider a Harris landslide? Like realistically I think the best she could hope for as far as electoral votes goes is winning everything Biden won, plus NC. That’s a pretty healthy win but it’s not exactly Reagan '84 either.
Texas going blue
And/or Senate 51 D
The next two weeks are going to be absolutely awful. How the fuck is this really happening.
Everything Biden won plus 3 of NC, TX, FL, OH.
You’ve got a call on Friday? That wouldnt be the worst option
FYP to throw a bone to the doomers.
Fwiw I’ve had multiple people come to my front door canvassing for Kamala but zero for Trump. Nice to see.
Just submitted my ballot! If NV wins by one vote then you know who to thank.