I think the math is similar to the guaranteed $500k vs gamble for $100M or whatever it was. Not as straightforward as it might seem.
Most people here are going to personally be fine no matter the outcome, so why not gamble. A few could be seriously screwed under Trump, so maybe for them Haley would be bad but at least survivable. Not sure if it’s simpler or more complicated if you consider world-wide effects.
I didn’t do math but I think it’s close. A year ago I would have said for sure, bring on Trump, but he seems even more dangerous now. Shit feels more real.
This is the Republican aesthetic: doesn’t affect me, so why care?
Trump’s long tail is immeasurably worse than a bog standard chamber of commerce woman.
I also think his median outcomes are all worse than most here think. He’s out for blood now and is more unhinged. Also, unlikely there will be another COVID pandemic to derail 25% of his term. And if there is another pandemic you can bet your ass he will listen to his gut and not the medical community.
Describe the worst case scenario under 4 years of a Haley presidency compared to 6 or so under DJT and then the next 20 when Don Jr inherits the throne
Enjoying all the Haley hate from maga world that she’s secretly a democrat and all her supporters are democrats, like hmmm, maybe that would make her a good candidate if you weren’t hell bent on destroying her? Nahhh who am I kidding
The worst case scenario is that she does the exact same shit that Trump would have done to destroy the government except it’s more effective and she gets away with it because she’s not a total fucking moron.
69-year-old Sotomayor dies and gets replaced by a Gorsuch-level or worse conservative. Anti-woke, anti-DEI bullshit gets enacted on a federal level. There are cuts to Medicare and Social Security. Republicans make gains in their war on voting and make it even harder for Democrats to win elections.
At a minimum Haley would get to replace Thomas and possibly Alito with 40-50 year olds and would lock the court for another 30+ years. Also as mentioned above a non-zero chance she gets to replace a liberal as well. And it doesn’t seem like the Ds are going to take my approach of ignoring unconstitutional orders from this court anytime soon so it would pretty much be the end. That plus all kinds of fuckery she’ll do with executive power and a non-trivial chance of starting more wars in the Middle East or elsewhere.
Now in fairness Trump is going to replace Thomas and Alito with even bigger, younger, right-wingier nut jobs, and I’m sure two liberals will end up dying/murdered and replaced with Enrique Tarrio and the Q-Anon Shaman. But your point is well taken, the Haley timeline stinks too.
Part of my calculation in choosing Biden vs Trump over certainty of Haley is that I think the Haley and Trump paths both likely end up at the same place, one is just slower and possibly more effective. Obviously we’ve got more outs with Haley than with Trump, but I don’t think a ton more.
Trump is obviously also a total nincompoop who can only surround himself with drooling cretins.
Just thinking about how WWII might have turned out worse long-term if somebody had actually managed to kill Hitler.
I’m not saying Haley wouldn’t truly suck. Just that it would be many orders of magnitude less than Trump. I doubt she gets away with erecting internment camps or canceling future presidential elections, or dismantling the supreme court and other institutions
