2024 Republican Primary Thread: Haley drops out

His analysis is garbage, though. Completely misreads the national mood, completely misjudges how important the party bosses are. He could not have been more wrong about American politics in 2014.

The biggest fallacy about presidential nominations is overestimating the role of rank-and-file voters. As political scientists Marty Cohen, David Karol, Hans Noel, and John Zaller have shown, established party actors actually exert vast control over the process. When two contenders are very evenly matched in terms of party support — like Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 — then things like get-out-the-vote operations, inspirational speeches, and caucus tactics do make the difference. But generally speaking, the party decides.

Obama and Hillary were “very evenly matched” in terms of party support? Really, Matt? Imagine writing this and then watching the host of NBC’s The Apprentice shred the entire GOP establishment. This is “you owe your readers an apology” levels of wrongness. You should get a refund if you bought his substack.

1 Like

I don’t disagree with your assessment of Yglesias, but I don’t thinkt it’s particularly pertinent here. The point of the conversation was that Pence was on the Presidential candidate radar before he accepted the offer to become VP. He “checked a lot of boxes”, and it doesn’t take faith in Matty Y to see that.

He was going to run for re-election as governor in Indiana and he opted instead to drop out of that race and get on the Trump train. Presumably this was a calculated move, anticipating that Trump’s brand would elevate Pence in the national discourse. It did make Pence more visible, and that enough may have been enough to kill his Presidential ambitions because Pence, like DeSantis, just looks worse the more you see him. But with the benefit of hindsight, Pence would have been better off (if still hopelessly uncharismatic) running fresh in 2024 as an unknown Governor of Indiana rather than the guy that Trump wanted (wants?) his cult to hang as a traitor. In the end, Pence’s relationship to Trump did him no favors.

1 Like

Do you actually read any political/policy analysis? Who is better than Yglesias?

This is what Yglesias said about Pence in 2014.

The winning political formula for Republicans has long been, in the immortal words of Dick Cheney, “Reagan proved deficits don’t matter.” Cut tax rates for the rich, make that more palatable by also cutting tax rates for the middle class, and then pay for it by … not paying for it.

Pence was a solid supply-sider as a member of Congress, and took Reaganesque fiscal thinking to new heights in his draft proposal for Social Security privatization. While lesser thinkers proposed to cut guaranteed Social Security benefits in order to offer people the rewards of private Social Security accounts, Pence’s proposal was to simply assume that the benefits of privatization would be so enormous as to make it possible to guarantee that nobody’s accounts would pay less than is offered by today’s guaranteed benefits. It’s all upside with no downside!

It wouldn’t work, of course, any more than promises from Reagan or Bush to increase revenue by cutting taxes worked. But this kind of thing is the time-tested way to sell conservative economic policy and freed from the constraints of Obama-era debates about Keynes, Pence is the ideal person to bring it back.

This is an actual analysis of Pence’s policy positions and how they fit within the broader GOP informed by research. Yglesias was right that the GOP would simply push tax cuts and not pay for them. The only thing he didn’t see was that the GOP would drop social security “reform” like a hot potato (thanks to the “unforeseeable” Trump). Also, he was right in 2014 that the then IN governor would be a major player in 2018 GOP politics even though Pence had yet to announce.

But if you’re reading Yggie for political analysis, that’s not really his thing. Most of his work is focused on examining the academic literature that can illuminate various and sundry “policy” debates of the moment, with an emphasis on macroeconomics.

Sometimes he does foreign policy, like this recent post on the Arab-Isreal conflict. Palestinian right of return matters - by Matthew Yglesias

My opinion of you is high enough to assume you just don’t read his stuff and have a sort of knee-jerk reaction to his general approach of not treating the Democratic left as serious people. I think people dislike that he’s obviously pretty far left but doesn’t regard the left of the Democratic party as coherent or capable actors.

And finally, he obviously has a lot of people who take his views seriously, as he now makes $1M a year writing a twice-a-week newsletter. Vox got rid of him because he was sometimes a jerk. Now Vox is gasping for air and Ygglie is taking long European vacations. Same could be said about Ezra Klein, although he is naturally more deferential. Still, Vox had a top 5 podcast with Matt, Ezra, and Sara Cliff, and now Yggy is on his own and the other two are at the NY Times and Vox is dying. They basically traded away peak Brady, Gronkowski, and a top 10% defensive lineman and now they can’t seem to put together a solid team again.

4 Likes

IMG_3917

5 Likes

I think the arguments about Ygelias are kind of irrelevant, but Vox is still producing lots of good stuff. I think they aren’t fresh anymore, they’ve stayed good but a lot of other people have gotten good.

I just don’t get it. Otherwise smart people seem to take Matty seriously but his takes always seem lazy and bad to me. He defended Hanania, for goodness sake.

1 Like

His Dune shit posting was amusing.

I’ll bite: what was his Dune take?

Think he’s has a few. Here’s one form a few days ago.

Eric Wilhelm: In the Dune universe, what were the enforcement mechanisms and agreements that upheld the Great Convention? What prevented the Spacing Guild from using their technological superiority, navigation know-how, and secure monopoly to openly seize power from political actors, such as the Emperor or Great Houses? Do “thinking machines” help or hinder the durability of such agreements?

My hot take on this is that nothing was stopping the Spacing Guild from seizing power, they just didn’t want to.

Of course, the Guild would need a proxy force on the ground in Arrakis to keep them supplied with spice, but a total monopoly over space travel — including interstellar military transport — should have made that easily possible. I think the Guild didn’t take over because the Guild Navigators didn’t particularly want to take over. Enhanced by spice and by training, they have limited powers of prescience that allow them to fold space safely. But this limited prescience also tends to make them passive. For most of the history of the Corrino Empire, they felt that things were going fine so they didn’t rock the boat.

At the start of “Dune,” though, the long-term Bene Gesserit human breeding program has gone off track. And we learn in Appendix III that the Guild sensed something was amiss:

When the Arrakis Affair boiled up, the Spacing Guild made overtures to the Bene Gesserit. The Guild hinted that its navigators, who use the spice drug of Arrakis to produce the limited prescience necessary for guiding spaceships through the void, were “bothered about the future” or saw “problems on the horizon.” This could only mean they saw a nexus, a meeting place of countless delicate decisions, beyond which the path was hidden from the prescient eye. This was a clear indication that some agency was interfering with higher order dimensions!

At this point they do try to seize control of events. The Corrino/Harkonnen plot to eliminate House Atreides is a flagrant violation of the terms of the Great Convention, but the Guild goes along with it. Per the original question, there’s really no check on their power here and the Convention is sort of meaningless if the Guild is willing to carry out military transports that obviously violate its terms. The fact that they decide when it is and isn’t upheld suggests that, in a very real sense, they are holding power all along and just mostly not using it.

But of course as tends to happen in literary treatments of prophesy, the effort to eliminate the threat of the Kwisatz Haderach brings him into being. And the effort to confront him with the coordinated military power of the galaxy becomes the occasion for him to gain mastery over them all.

1 Like

He would just bring up Dune a lot.

It’s not a bad take tbh. I always figured anyone can walk up to the navigators and unplug their tanks so idk if they had all that much leverage over anyone.

That’s enough for me. Any dune talk gives me tiredhead.

Here’s Matt’s most recent post. Does it seem clownish or like Chris Cillizza to you?

Pence out. Guess I’m going to have to file for bankruptcy because I bet everything on Pence…said no one ever.

Mike Johnson or Bob Smith or whatever the new speaker’s name is is just Pence with heated seats and GPS anyway.

Lol beat me to it

Sad!

4 Likes

Get out of there Mikey

What??

Why???

1 Like

gosh, I’m sure trump will have nothing but support for his former VP and won’t say anything about this.

Well who the fuck are we supposed to hang now?

7 Likes

Hillary

2 Likes