2024 LC Thread

My kid and his friends actually hung out at a mall last weekend.

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Thus might be a better conversation the sports betting thread where there are likely smarter people then me, but I can’t help myself.

There is a bit of begging the question here - if you assume that there are two sides to every bet and that books balance the sides, then it becomes trivial to calculate the hold. But that is not how it works. These aren’t parimutuel markets, every bet is a contract with the book. That complicates balancing the markets even if they want to, which they often do not.

More importantly, as Marmot already said, a huge part of the action and likely a majority of the hold, come from gimmick bets, especially same game parlays. These don’t offer an “other side” and have edges that are variant and difficult to calculate and also there are literally millions of them so good luck with that. As far as I know, no state requires the books to release their holds on these bets, but speculation online seems to range from 20 to 50 percent which is very believable to me. The generation of these contracts is a black box, but they are largely procedurally generated. With so many options it is very hard not to offer profitable contracts from time to time and the books know this so if you show any sign of intelligence they simply don’t take your business. Conversely, if they think you are a square you can win all you want and will have no problem upping your bets without the books worrying about “balancing” it with sharp money.

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The new season of Michael Lewis‘ podcast Against The Rules is about the economics and policies of sports betting. This episode adresses what you are talking about:

It‘s worth listening to

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Did they take a time machine back to the '80s?

One of my hobbies is “dead mall” discourse. Did you know that every failing or closed mall has a memorial Facebook group? BTW all of them seem to have the same theory about why all the malls had to close. You will never guess what it is!

I think that’s heavily location dependent - some outlet malls are on the outskirts of the suburbs where I am are a little shitty, but the malls in the city proper are extremely upscale. I actually wouldn’t mind living in one, if there was some kind of grocery store in the mall or nearby

The Youths?

The internets?

Lol you guys are ice cold. Think about it - disgruntled suburbanites on Facebook. What might cause the disassembling of our institutional heritage?

the blacks, probably in barely coded language, maybe “thugs”

Very good. Unfortunately you did not phrase the answer in the form of a question.

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I do kind of miss malls now that I live in New York. There used to be a couple places that felt like malls: the Mall of Manhattan near Macy’s and the old Pier 17. Now all that’s left are shopping centers like the Hudson Yards that are too high end and sterile to give that authentic mall feeling. The malls in my hometown have shut down or on life support like in many areas. But good to know there are still places with thriving old school mall cultures, like Dallas.

If you think they should make buildings with shopping at the bottom and apartments above, this should obviously make sense. Mixing housing and retail instead of having separate zoning is a good thing.

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We have a “mall” with apartments/condos here in Glendale. I stayed there once - I “won” a night in a guest apartment in a silent auction. It was fun for a night but I wouldn’t want to live there.

Yeah, I think the concept makes sense. The title just makes me think of some Dawn of the Dead scenario.

I’ve never really missed malls in New York because big sections of Manhattan (5th Ave, Soho) are so dense with stores that malls never really felt necessary.

I enjoy walking the Del Amo mall near me during Christmastime. It’s huge and still bustling, and I can watch families of 4 sitting down to 4 giant Cinnabuns and 4 giant Chillatas - a well-balanced meal.

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If I’m so cold, then why did I make this meme before meetings and forget to post it?

Screenshot 2024-12-06 085327

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