Tough to beat 10% vig.
I think the 3% are the people that get a gambling addiction and are depleting retirement savings, mortgaging the house, etc.
If this were true, then bookies could not be profitable. DUCY?
Yea finding profitable bets is stupid easy. The problem is they aggressively back you off or steal your funds when you start winning, which should be illegal.
Bookies take rake. They donât make their money picking sides afaik.
Unclaimed $197M Mega Millions ticket sold in Encino expires Dec. 7
Meh, this isnât really true either imo. Especially for the online sportsbooks. If your business model is to ban all the sharps it isnât really efficient to not give the losing better a bit of rope.
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Ok but define how much edge the best sharps have, and that should be the worst negative edge a losing whale should have, right?
Otherwise, you could always just fade the opposite side of the worst player on the site and be the biggest winner. Unless a big part of being a losing whale is picking spots where the rake is killing you. Has anyone ever tried to quantify that?
So my point is the whales still have to put in a ton of volume to lose that much, just like sharps would have to put in insane volume to win millions (if they were allowed).
itâs probably just volume here.
A lot of the parlays offered have a really high vig (rake) and you arenât allowed to take the other side. People who find a way to win in those are making a lot less than the whales are losing.
Iâm guessing most of the people in deep are doing escalating parlays, as thatâs the only way theyâre gonna make it back
Things that make you go hmm
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Thatâs really fucking depressing. Malls are depressing enough when you have to go there for an hour.
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âThe mall is becoming cool again,â said Jacob Knudsen, the vice president of development for Macerich, which is currently redeveloping the FlatIron Crossing Mall in Broomfield, Colorado to add housing.â
JLawokgif
Haha, theyâre not sleeping in the shoe department at Sears. Theyâre tearing down unused SF and building apartments and other stuff. Itâs actually quite good to be repurposing underutilized real estate. Offices are boring, we donât say âoh wow, how depressingâ if someone lived in an office-to-multifamily conversion.
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I get that, but malls are located in shitty places.
My kid and his friends actually hung out at a mall last weekend.
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Thus might be a better conversation the sports betting thread where there are likely smarter people then me, but I canât help myself.
There is a bit of begging the question here - if you assume that there are two sides to every bet and that books balance the sides, then it becomes trivial to calculate the hold. But that is not how it works. These arenât parimutuel markets, every bet is a contract with the book. That complicates balancing the markets even if they want to, which they often do not.
More importantly, as Marmot already said, a huge part of the action and likely a majority of the hold, come from gimmick bets, especially same game parlays. These donât offer an âother sideâ and have edges that are variant and difficult to calculate and also there are literally millions of them so good luck with that. As far as I know, no state requires the books to release their holds on these bets, but speculation online seems to range from 20 to 50 percent which is very believable to me. The generation of these contracts is a black box, but they are largely procedurally generated. With so many options it is very hard not to offer profitable contracts from time to time and the books know this so if you show any sign of intelligence they simply donât take your business. Conversely, if they think you are a square you can win all you want and will have no problem upping your bets without the books worrying about âbalancingâ it with sharp money.
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The new season of Michael Lewisâ podcast Against The Rules is about the economics and policies of sports betting. This episode adresses what you are talking about:
Itâs worth listening to
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