2024 LC Thread: Name That Tune

Come on, man. I explicitly accounted for it multiple times. Didn’t you read what I posted? As I have explained if you include the net present value of your future labor and add some part of that into your bankroll, then there are absolutely cases where you come up with a number to bet that is higher than the amount of money that you currently have.

In that case you will be using your future earnings to pay off the bet that you lost. Of course this is all theoretical. In the real world, getting loans to make highly EV prop bets might not be that easily accomplished. Also this is an extremely aggressive strategy, which may not be acceptable to everyone, in which case they might use some sort of fractional kelly or other similar strategy.

Obviously, in the example given, future earnings are a consideration and I have already pointed out that I have accounted for them multiple times. I also explained how you can put future earnings into a Kelly-type analysis. I even quoted the relevant parts for you. If you want to keep ignoring that, I’m not sure what else I can do.

It’s pretty disingenuous of you to say that I am not accounting for future earnings when I have.

Anyway, for at least the 4th time, future earnings are important and need to be put into your analysis. Even if we account for future earnings, there is some amount of wealth/income for which taking the 950K is correct using kelly or a less aggressive kelly-type analysis.

Wtf

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It was more obvious before the Ark of the Covenant melted his face.

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https://x.com/hughbaran/status/1737247604902121752?s=20

Clown :clap: Union :clap: Clown :clap: Union :clap: Clown :clap: Union. Just imagine the union drip

That’s because Ted Cruz was hatched in 2014

You shut your fucking mouth

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This article is amazing.

As mayor, Pierce said he is routinely contacted by more recently arrived Californians who see garbage on the streets and, instead of picking it up themselves, ask him why the town doesn’t hire more maintenance workers. “So, you want your taxes to go up,” he said he asks them. “You want more government?”

He finds it particularly hard to understand how retired police and firefighters, who often collect more from their California pensions than their local counterparts earn in salary, can consider themselves conservatives.

“They want to give the same kind of benefits to officers and state employees here,” Pierce said. “And, it’s like, wait a minute, you literally created a huge deficit in California and now you want to do the same thing here?”

His challenger, Pike, said he felt whiplash moving from one state where people accused him of being too conservative to another where he’s suspected of not being conservative enough.

He’s been a Republican for 41 years, he said, and left California in part because of the arrogance and entitlement he felt from Democrat Gov. Gavin Newsom and his predecessor, Jerry Brown, who ran the state with no meaningful opposition and almost no regard for the feelings of Californians like him.

When he arrived in Idaho, he felt like he was finally able to “exhale,” he said, to “relax and enjoy life.”

So it was a shock when the mayor’s supporters attacked him from the other flank, accusing him of being a RINO (Republican in name only) and a Democratic “plant.”

“I came here looking for anything that’s not the liberal, socialistic view of the government in California,” Pike said.

Asked if he thought it was hypocritical to complain about socialism in a state that provides him a $123,000-per-year pension, Pike said he figured anybody who raised such questions was just jealous.

“This is a free country, you have the option to go anywhere you want,” Pike said. “I’m not ashamed to say that I brought my CalPERS pension to Idaho.”

A pension is a guaranteed payment for life after retirement. Decades ago, they were a standard benefit of career-level corporate and government jobs in America. But they’re almost unheard of in the private sector now.

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paging riverman…

The rest of the article is cops bitching about not feeling supported.

Jorge Grajeda retired from the Long Beach Police Department in September. He was born in Mexico and moved to Southern California with his family when he was 5. He was living the American dream in his early years as a cop, but as his responsibilities grew, he couldn’t help noticing the bite taxes took from his paychecks.

“I was paying some years $40,000 in income tax,” Grajeda said, and getting what felt to him like very little in return.

“I didn’t get subsidized housing, I didn’t get lower utility bills” that the government offered lower income people. “Nobody looked out for me,” Grajeda said.

And the sense of pride and accomplishment he felt in being a police officer eroded quickly, around the time of the national reckoning on police brutality that followed the 2014 shooting of Michael Brown, an unarmed Black teenager, by a white police officer in Ferguson, Mo.

Jorge Grajeda, with his wife, Marllin, and daughter, Samantha, 4, framed through the living room window of their rural home near Eagle, Idaho.

“We used to go places and people would wave to us,” or pay for our coffee, but in the last 10 years, “pretty much all of that went away,” Grajeda said. Now, he said, “it’s all about race.”

Today, Grajeda owns four houses in the Treasure Valley, as the area surrounding Eagle is known. He lives in one with his family and rents out the other three. He had never imagined owning so much real estate, but the prices and interest rates were so low in Idaho before the pandemic, when he started looking, he couldn’t pass up the investment opportunity, he said.

“I was feeling so burned down, frustrated, stressed” as a police officer in Long Beach, Grajeda said. When he visited Idaho, he was struck by how safe he felt. “That’s how it used to be when I was a little kid,” he added.

A retired sergeant from the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department, who asked that his name not be published because of credible threats from an ex-inmate he helped arrest, arrived in 2019 with his $128,000 pension and guaranteed health coverage.

Does he feel any remorse for leaving California, the source of his retirement income?

“You get over that real quick,” he said, laughing at the question. “You put 30 years of blood, sweat and tears into the city. You don’t feel guilty at all.”

He lived in Southern California his whole life and used to love it, he said. But he, too, had grown to view the state as a toxic stew of crime, homelessness and liberal policies that made police work seem thankless.

Like many cops, he said his disillusionment with California’s government stems from the sense that police department leaders and politicians no longer have their backs.

Cops not only have to worry about the most violent and unstable members of society they’re asked to confront on the street, he said, they also have to worry about prosecutors trying to score points with liberal voters by “hanging them out to dry” when things go wrong.

It takes a toll. “I’ve stood on the front lines at protests with people spitting in your face, throwing bottles and rocks, and you couldn’t do anything,” he said. “That was just silly to me.”

If people in California are upset that so much pension money is fleeing the state, it’s their fault for electing politicians who don’t support the police, he said, adding, “If those guys weren’t in office, I tell you right now, 70 to 80% of us would still be in California.”

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Lmfao. “I collect 128k a year from my California pension and used it to buy 4 homes in Idaho. I fucking hate California, that liberal hellhole.” ACAB

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Reminds me of the classic “I was on welfare, I was on food stamps, did anybody help me?” bullshit.

Aw jeez I’m just making shitloads of money I can use to buy multiple houses and people used to pay for my coffee but boo hoo I also had to pay taxes on that money, I’m so oppressed.

“I had to stand on the front lines of protests while people spit on me and I wasnt allowed to pistol whip them. How unfair is that?”

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It granted more than 200,000 civil servants the ability to retire at 55 and, in many cases, collect more than half of their highest salary for the rest of their lives. California Highway Patrol officers did even better: They could retire at 50 and receive as much as 90% of their peak pay as long as they lived.

Ok I pushed a little bit on Suzzer about generous government retirement and how it’s really the private sector that’s scrimping out on helping their employees retire, but point blank 90% of your pay at 50 to what 70 to 85? That’s impossible to sustain, and absolutely crazy that, somehow the idea that maybe you’re not on the bootstrapping, earned every penny for retirement kind doesn’t settle in? Like not even a little? Fuck I don’t even think the socialist Nordics have that good of a retirement program.

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Why are these men smiling? The answer will surprise you!

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Estrada just farted and Wilcox is into it

It’s fucking nuts I’ve been saying it for 20 years.

Separately Jon Stewart is good at this:

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Cognitive dissonance is undefeated.

I see what they did there.

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When i read on twitter that the 18-year-old hacker who released those gta6 gameplay clips was sentenced to life in hospital prison, i assumed it was a gag, but…

The jury was told that while he was on bail for hacking Nvidia and BT/EE and in police protection at a Travelodge hotel, he continued hacking and carried out his most infamous hack.

Despite having his laptop confiscated, Kurtaj managed to breach Rockstar, the company behind GTA, using an Amazon Firestick, his hotel TV and a mobile phone.

Man this kid is like the Michael Avenatti of hacking.

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