I’m pretty sure if we had a 4th and 6 from the 20 up 14
DC is kicking the FG
He showed that at the end of the first half
We just ran bad on a few plays and dropped some big 3rd/4th downs
With hope we get a CB1 in round 1 and go from there.
That’s the beauty of it.
3 Likes
Remember when Jim Caldwell kicked a FG from the 8’yard line down 7 to the bears with like 5 minutes left
Man I wish we could go back to those days. I miss points on the board.
3 Likes
6 Likes
The Xchan comments are amazing. Big brain geniuses who have no idea how these models work assuming they know more than the people who make them. “Yeah but did you consider the fact that there are only a few minutes left and the other team can score if you don’t convert???” Thanks for calling.
Just so fucked
Purdy MVP though
I think Dan Campbell sucks as a coach and even I’m not calling for his job. We live in a results oriented world, and being a bit more than a FG away from a Superbowl may be the best SB era result they’ve ever had. He’s not fireable even if he isn’t very good.
@Danspartan if it makes you feel any better, when the Royals were fighting for a playoff spot in 2014, I flew back to KC to watch them play a series with the Tigers on the last week of the season (they lost both games I went to). After 29 years of no postseason, I thought it might the only time in the rest of my life I’d get to see them even compete for a playoff spot this late in the season.
And the rest of the story of course is that they went to game 7 that year and won it all the next year.
1957
It’s easy to lose hope. They have to make you wait a couple of decades or three so you can get your hopes up again. Then crush them.
Iirc the royals wait was only 30ish years.
This. Grunching because I was away last week, but I’m shocked that some people think it’s not a big deal that Campbell went for it there. Going from up 2 scores back to 3 is enormous, and killing a big chunk of the 3Q while keeping the status quo from halftime would have been very deflating to the 49ers.
I get the idea of stepping on their necks and trying to bury them early, but halfway through the 3Q with a solid lead is the time where you should be very content to match your opponent score-for-score.
Going for it on 4th increases variance. If you have a lead, taking the FG may sometimes be -ev in terms of points, but +ev in terms of win probability.
You are all acting like the FG is a 100% proposition
If it was a 30 yard FG. I agree kick the FG
It would have been a 50 yard attempt. Outside. Our kicker is butt
The first time going for it was 100% right.
The second time to tie the game. I would have kicked but it’s DC. Just have to accept this is what he does
I would be shocked if kicking a FG in either of those spots was more EV than going for it.
What if it was a 53 yard attempt. 56. 60. 70
Our kicker is trash guys.
If we had Justin Tucker. Yeah. Kick the FG. We don’t.
Woulda been 45 (had to look it up again just now because I know I wouldn’t have thought the decision was lol if it was really 50+). Is he that bad?
I’ve crunched the analytics on this and they say you need to get a better kicker.
Lions kicker is historically 9/20 on 48yard+ kicks, which is really bad, but most likely they know that’s sample size and he’s actually better as he won an in season kicking competition against a more accomplished kicker sometime around week 12.
Everyone seems to be making this about kicker quality, which is a factor in the decision, but not the only factor.
The Lions defense, specifically the pass defense, is ass. Borderline super ass. The narrative going into this game was that points on every drive was likely a prerequisite to winning this game. Settling for 3 points when your defense has a high likelihood of giving up 7 on the next possession is a fundamental mistake at that point in the game.
The analytics based on league averages say it was ever so thinly nudged towards going for it. Add in the points of:
- Lions kicker is sub-par.
- Lions offense is well above average in short yardage spots.
- Lions pass defense is dogshit
And the conclusion is simple. Go for it.
The play worked. The guy dropped a ball put in his breadbasket that’s a 49/50 catch.
No one’s mentioned this on the pundit shows, but I think that ball was tipped too. The trajectory and spin seemed to change a little, making it a tougher catch.
The only coaching decision that was a fuckup, and MCDC even admitted as much, was the 3rd down run at the goal line that cost the timeout and forced the onside kick.
They were already fucked at that point. That knocked their win% from something like 4% to 1%. A coaching decision that costs you 3% win equity is bad for sure, but they were pretty well toast anyway and he thought he had a good matchup to get a walk in TD.
The obvious player mistakes killed them. The dropped passes, the fumble, and the hilarious INT off the CB’s facemask. Fix any one of those and the Lions likely pull those it. MCDC is a good coach. Sorry the meathead breaks your narrative that a coach has to be a math geek.
1 Like