Believe Bills are a lock if Steelers lose. Bills going in as a WC could be fun for a division champ.
Bills are probably going to be 2 seed or out at this point. Really crazy. (If Jax wins)
The path is crazy, but the result is correct. They are the second best AFC team. They will be the number 2 seed.
The Browns will play one of Jags, Colts, or Texans. I think I’d prefer Colts, then Jags, then Texans?
Colts definitely the worst. Jags / Texans probably a PK right now with Schrodinger’s Lawrence.
Man you gotta keep you timeouts there as the Colts. Totally not worth trying to draw them offsides.
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Steichen seems awful
Yeah the timeout plus taking out JT on the 4th down didn’t seem very good
Winning 9 games with that team is certainly something though. No coach is good at everything I’d still take him over most of them.
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The average NFL coach is awful in these spots, so nothing remarkable there.
The average NFL coach probably couldn’t get this group of scrubs with Minshew at the helm that close to the playoffs.
So, if I’m a Colts fan, I’m pissed off, but I’m also getting over it pretty fast.
I think 29 coaches are handing it to Taylor in this spot.
A couple perhaps QB sneak.
Nobody else is bringing in a backup to be the target with the season on the line.
Texans franchise going from being wrecked by a rapist to having a bright future in a pretty short time.
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That’s completely results oriented.
The play call itself was perfect. That’s a pitch and catch that is made at least 90% of the time by anyone good enough to be on the roster.
If you showed someone a freeze frame of the play just before the throw and asked someone they could either have the result of that play or the result of a JT carry, I think most take that play.
Even JT can get stuffed on 4th down. That’s not a lock.
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The Lions threw to an offensive lineman in a similar spot, although their season wasn’t at stake. It was a poorly thrown pass by Minshew.
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It’s also results oriented to call it a good decision because the recieiver was open and it should have been a conversion. Having JT on the sideline in that spot is telegraphing it’s a pass play.
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I thought everyone realized “they’ll never expect it” coaching is dumb.
Sure. But if you just look at the general stats on 4th and 1 conversion on a run vs 4th and 1 on a pass, the difference in success rate is not that much.
I don’t get how much shit is being given over the throw. Yes the RB had to adjust, but it wasn’t that tough a catch. I’d put it 50/50 blame on each.
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NFL coaches know they have to mix it up and we don’t give them enough credit for doing so in each spot. They probably have game theory coaches or get close to game theory optimal decision making via experience and being around other successful coaches.
Alternatively the ones in the NFL may just have luckboxed their way into game theory optimal decision making by the NFL Darwining the best coordinators from college and lower levels.
That’s why run and pass success rates seem relatively similar on 3rd and 4th downs regardless of distance.
I’m probably 35% QB, 65% RB.
If it was a WR not catching that, it’s probably 75-85% WR since they should be better at those.
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