2023 NFL Gameday Thread: SUPER refBOWL!

Awful 2PC. Also way too much time

WTF was that

https://twitter.com/ScottKacsmar/status/1726454696087634369

Can someone ELI5 what is going on in that post?

I think he has some crazy parlay of guessing the score of 5 games correctly, and he missed Broncos/Vikings because the Broncos didn’t convert the 2XP.

I think it’s a joke because he missed them all.

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Ah. I guess I could have bothered to check.

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I didn’t crunch any numbers, but that payout at the bottom feels low for guessing the exact final score on 5 out 5 NFL games.

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Yeah, and so does the pay out for even hitting one. I mean, maybe those are the actual payouts, because there are some massive sucker bets out there, but hoooooo boy am I not taking +7000 to bet on an exact final score in an NFL game.

Not an American but looks like he did the 10 combinations of pairs that were correct (the RR bit 10x, there are 10 combos of two for that multi). 10 25c bets = $2.50 staked.

My guess is hitting 2 out of 5 would have involved some kind of payday. Those odds look like exact scores so his potentially winning parlay would have been

25c x70 x70
25c x 4900

~$1250

Which wouldnt have been a bad hit off 25c

Man, thats kinda scary. For a professional goddamn athlete to say drinking that shit caused him to feel that way, imagine what it does to 15 year old kids.

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Are you really that far off of 1/7000 to be right? If you bet the most common NFL score outcome on every game each year, how many games in a row do you have to be wrong to be on the losing end?

Exact scores are one of (if not the) biggest sucker bets sites offer. They tempt you with the big odds of 70-to-1, but in reality the odds are so much longer.

The most common NFL score is 20-17, which has occurred 286 times out of 17,543 games - or about 61:1. But you’d need to bet it both ways, so it’s 120:1. Of course certain games are going to be more likely to hit that score based on the teams so you could reduce the vig, but it’s still a terrible bet.

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I wonder if looking at the O/U and the spread for every game, and making an approximate guess based on those, would get you any closer to making a profit on those. Probably not close, but it would be interesting.

I feel like the 2PC and increased instances of missed XPs these days would make exact score guessing even more of a fool’s errand anyway. Like I remember on super bowl box pools, it used to be like you’d just assume you were fucked if you got some combo including 1/2/5/8 or whatever, now it feels like any score is live.

The only way wagering on point totals is a good bet is when the future is revealed to you in a particularly vivid dream.

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Following the Butterfly Effect rule, how much would Biff placing one bet change the rest of the almanac?

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Biff’s gambling changed Marty’s mom’s boobs.

You just need to ignore the rules of time travel in BTF. Like in the first - somehow the McFlys becoming rich in no way effects exactly when they fucked leading to the exact same three kids. And despite being wealthy they also live in the exact same house.

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