Man I love betting on sports but gambling commercials make me almost side with the right wing nutjobs.
Almost.
Great field sound pickup on tonight’s broadcast. It would be even better without Al and Kirk.
What is the point on 2nd down from the 24 and 16 seconds left to dump it down for 5 yards. Take three shots to the end zone. Jfc. Run GD pick plays and get someone open. Make the refs call it.
Drives me nuts how end of game situations are managed by coach/QB.
Kirk Cousins is the poster child of the checkdown on 4th and 15.
I would have run that check down two or three more times and take one or two shots from inside the 15. The balls he was throwing into the end zone were hopeless.
Jfc. Flood one side of the field and then send you best jump ball receiver away from the crowd and throw it.
Trying touch passes over the middle = INT
No way you should prefer that to one shot from about the 8-yard line. Massive difference in win probability. The farther back the worse it gets to the point where at some distance (12 yards?) you’ll need two attempts.
Didn’t they once do a game with no announcers? With Amazon having multiple feeds they should be able to add this.
Yeah the only realistic way to score from that distance is to have a mahomes type generational QB who can extend the play for 7-8 seconds until one of the receivers finally breaks open and even he would have trouble doing that behind Tennessee’s Oline. Id much rather have one shot from the 8 than two from the 20
Yeah I feel like the only thing that differentiates an end-of-game EZ shot from the ~20 from a true Hail Mary is that with the former, you have a legit shot of hitting a guy in stride short of the goal line and then taking it in.
I’d actually argue that’s by far your best chance to score in that spot, although if you do that and he gets tackled at the 2 or something, you look dumb.
How do we account for the not getting out of bounds risk of throwing short. Maybe I’m over-estimating that.
Basically under 20 seconds you have some risk of not getting to the line which only gets riskier at 15 seconds left, etc. (to impossible less than 10).
In this specific case the 24 to the 19 has to be negligible advantage vs time lost and clock expiration risk. I guess that a very safe OOB throw is better than just chucking it out of the end zone. The problem is that a mistake is fatal- we’ve all seen receivers try to fight for yardage in these situations.
If we include OOB risk in the model, then surely we also have to include the possibility of a game-ending sack.
I think you also need to consider that having WRs run 30 yards to endzone is going to tire them out. They can probably do it twice in a row, but third time might start to get tough. Pretty common to see WRs take a play off after a deep ball.
There were a few balls thrown to Hopkins both this week and last where he’s clearly not open, stops running the route, and looks back like “wtf are you doing?” Looks like Levis is trying to throw every sideline vertical even when they’re totally covered and probably just decoy routes anyway. For some reason I find that amusing.
I thought this was interesting on the next to last play. There’s no way this is open or could possibly be the read. That throw works when the LB is turned; #54 is watching the QB but loses his mind, and I think it’s because of this weirdo’s sidearm release (?). It’s probably completed if the ball doesn’t sail.
I can’t believe Pittsburgh is 5-3.
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Steelers havent had a losing season since 2003 so at this point it would be more surprising if they aren’t a middling mediocre above .500 team.
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5-3 with a -30 point differential. Their game films are horrifying outside of Watt and Highsmith.
Repeating something I heard on a different forum, but I think it’s credible.
This year’s Steelers also had less yardage than their opponent in all 8 games. Being outgained in first 8 games of a season has only happened 33 other times in NFL history and none of the other teams had a winning record for those 8 games. Only one of those teams ended the season with a winning record
Spoiler
It was the 2022 Steelers
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Haha yeah come to think of it I heard them say that too. I thought the 2022 Vikings were lucky but this is unreal.
The Dolphins won the coin toss and elected to kick off (according to the announcers).
