Anybody know of a good place to find these estimates?
Iām incredibly saddened to hear this. Revenging a massacre by performing a 10x or more massacreā¦
I get there is little rational thought here, but I shudder to think of what comes after. If Hamas is removed from the face of the Earth (surely an almost impossible task to begin with?), what will rise in their stead?
Revenge begets revenge begets revenge. If Israelies are hellbent on wiping Hamas off the earth in retaliation for Israelās 9/11, whybwould we not think that a new group will rise up seeking revenge for Palestineās 9/11 after Israel rises up with a disproportionate level of killing?
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And what will other actors in the region do? Hizbollah and Iran to start with.
Non-zero chance Iran is picking up the pieces after Tehran gets nuked.
Because if you kill enough of them off, theyāll never be in a position to fight back. The Armenians donāt exactly like the Turks, but they arenāt really in a position to do anything about it.
That Rep that showed up in and IDF uniform in spite of being an American evangelical Christian and never served in the IDF, called Tlaib an Arab Nazi on a podcast today
https://twitter.com/metzgov/status/1713036665415983469?t=2HSqFLWXnzp5POgDI9iP-Q&s=19
Thereās a difference between something being wrong, or immoral, or abhorrent, and it being irrational
So they have intelligence that Hamas was using the Hospital for some purpose so now they are going to turn it into a parking lot? Wouldnāt Hamas just move to another building in the future? Seems like the goal is to just make the Gaza Strip uninhabitable. I donāt think Europe has the appetite for 2m more migrants.
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I think the destruction of northern Gaza would be all of the above.
There is definitely a rationale behind it and while despicable and inhumane, isnāt necessarily irrational depending on what the objective is
A guy once told me that if someone were to murder his child, heād kill not only that person, but his whole family. Iām like what if he had a baby? You wouldnāt kill an innocent baby, would you?! Heās like yep. That gene pool needs to end right there. This was also the thought process of feuding clans in the not too distant past. You kill off everyone so thereās no one left to avenge
Isnāt this in many cases, the end goal of apartheid?
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If the objective is fewer Israels killed in the long run, I challenge the wisdom of demolishing north Gaza and killing tens of thousands of innocent civilians. Has this ever ended in anything but even worse groups rising from the ashes of, in this case, Hamas?
Even though international sympathy is with Israel right now, as before, I think youāll see more pressure on Israel to cease and desist as their atrocities escalate.
If the goal is Bibi and his cronies surviving politically and escaping prison, then itās logical.
The conclusion of WWII, which must carry a lot of weight in Israel, is likely the model for obliterating an enemy so badly that they are basically eradicated. Obviously we still have Nazis, but in the decades following WWII a new and better Germany did emerge from the war.
I suppose the difference is that there is at least a narrative that Allies in WWII didnāt actively try to exterminate every German. But a few hundred thousand German citizens did die.
Anyway, I am generally in agreement with you that a strategy of dehumanizing Palestinians then wiping out Gaza and blaming the civilian dead for ānot getting out fast enough, we warned youā is a going to feed Islamic extremism. I am particularly worried about Hamas gaining support in the West Bank, and inflaming tensions there. Not to mention the risk of destabilizing the entire Middle East.
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Violence as a response to violence has never, and will never work. Itās a bit of poor programming in our evolutionary software that we seem unable to eradicate. We have done a decent job of creating cultural counters to it in some parts of the world but so far seem unable to totally remove it.
There is no path for Israel using violence that will somehow result in long term stability in the region. Everyone knows it will certainly result in less stability but we canāt seem to recognize that when passions understandably run hot. It is completely understandable how Israel will respond even though we all know itās doomed to fail in its supposed goal.
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As mosdef pointed out in the post before WWII is an instance where this did work.
This is a very complex question that would take more time to unpack than any of us want to spend. Obviously the invasion of Germany was just but whether it āworkedā depends a lot on your temporal lens.
The goals with both Germany and Japan were to wipe out their governments and replace them them with western style democracies. Yes the world is still a shitty place but not because of budding resentment in Germany and Japan because those goals were reached.
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This is one of those things people say, but is obviously not true
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Making Gaza unlivable and having ~2m Palestines absorbed into other countries probably sounds good to Israel.
That would be probably left of center wish right now. On the right they want the same without letting them leave.