Yea and bigger stack it’s a more obvious call.
The replies from notable players are interesting:
https://twitter.com/JenShahade/status/1547357180763852800?s=20&t=K9xuoX6j4XtGP2o5189NEg
https://twitter.com/Protentialmn/status/1547358333971009537?s=20&t=K9xuoX6j4XtGP2o5189NEg
https://twitter.com/dklappin/status/1547369618951610370?s=20&t=K9xuoX6j4XtGP2o5189NEg
https://twitter.com/thinkingpoker/status/1547350897835081728?s=20&t=K9xuoX6j4XtGP2o5189NEg
Sure, and you’re usually ~30% more than 80 or 85 which obviously isn’t great, but I’d much rather fold and make up that I had AJo then ever admit to folding KK here.
“I doubt even AA is a call.”
LOL. Donkament guys are just looking for excuses to make ridiculous plays like this so they can say “aha my good sir, have you considered the independent chip model?” Until you produce an actual calculation that justifies it, stfu about folding 85% equity so that you’re like less than 15% more likely to min cash.
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I mean in the scenario in question you’re guaranteed to be able to fold into the money. The real question is how much do your chances of a big score go up with a double.
Table dynamics matter, because there are certain scenarios where the original raiser is heavily weighted towards the nuts.
Looking at it, it’s closer than I thought, starting stack is still 7.5bb. If the first raiser folds, hero has ~75% equity for a 26bb pot, they’re at 4k/8k so that’s ~$26k EV, if you fold you’ve got $15k+ whatever extra you can get with your 11bbs. Straight $EV it’s close and the % of opener range that is AA might swing it either way.
If you are actually a solid favorite over the remaining players in the event, those chips have extra value though.
Lol clicked fold on that poll by accident (on phone) and am actually really surprised that everyone said call.
EDIT: I hadn’t made up my mind yet, but for me, a casual, I lean fold. Mincash vs. nothing is huge for me and doubling or tripling up doesn’t improve my chances of a really deep run that much.
We’re not here to nit it up on UP either in poker or in having internecine conflicts
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Rebei really going for it.
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So much of modern poker discourse by bad regs is making a bad play then having a computer program tell you it’s OK because if your range is perfectly balanced you’re supposed to do that 3% ofnthe time.
I saw a similar hand on Instagram that annoyed me. Hadn’t ever heard of the player before, tried searching for the hand again to get it accurate but couldn’t find it.
Basically villain is effective stack at 60bb, opens UTG.
Hero calls 910cc btn
A910r flop, hero calls 1/2 psb otf.
I cannot remember turn action, so that fucks things up a bit. Believe it went bet/call again.
Final board is A9105J or A910J5.
On the river villain checks, hero overbets pot (think he said 200% but might have been 115%),and folds to a shove. Think the pot was ~11.5bb and they bet ~25bb.
Now, this hand crippled hero so they get back to their room and run a simulation on it. Apparently 11.8% of the time they should be overbetting the river. That’s kind of fine, but the simulation won’t have a discrepancy between the Main and a $11 nightly on stars. Have some reads! If you are value betting and targeting AQ/AK, that’s just thin. If you’re turning two pair into a bluff…I dont think you’re folding out sets? AJ probably not either?
It also apparently had K7 and K8 as high frequently overbet bluffs. Like fine, you block both sides of straights but how do you get to the river with that kind of hand.
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I’m not gonna run the math but folding AA intuitively is probably right as ridiculous as that is (I’m not capable of doing it, I bubble way more often than I should in tournaments overall) with the payout structure, main pays out a lot of people then it’s pretty flat for quite awhile. tournaments are dumb that is even an argument. I mean if you knew your opponent had an ace, it’s hard to call KK with the bustout % there, depends how much that mincash means to you.
I’m trying to imagine playing poker tournaments and thinking “man I better be balanced against all these donks who entered” but yeah in your scenario it’s really hard for worse to call outside of hero calling.
Also he’s got to take his own stack size how good his table is and the entire field into account first, which of course I don’t think he did.
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bluff shove half pot or so with 65o takes some stones at this point in the main, kudos to him
his opponent turbo snap folded a K, with only half pot or so and having the chips to burn as he was the leader he should’ve thought about it at least
Rebei calls turn with just pocket fours, hits a four, is last to act and got checked to and just checks river
Yea he pulled the trigger fast on the shove too. Snap fold I was surprised after he called the 7mill so fast on turn.
Played a bit with Adrian in Australia, good guy and very good at poker, hope he ships.
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Don’t do drugs, kids.
https://twitter.com/NickSchulman/status/1547368457208860672?s=20&t=creV7fAM89L4-sAOmVwkSA
https://twitter.com/TerenceAntony/status/1547409486452690945?s=20&t=creV7fAM89L4-sAOmVwkSA
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Sounds like some antivaxers at the feature table.