Did my civic duty. Turnout is pretty good for a local only election. We are doing fill in the rectangles so pretty easy to get a glimpse of how others were voting while in line to feed into the scanner. 100% D with n=4. Mostly me and older ladies in the room.
I tend to think it’s residual anti-Trump action. Yard signs were 3:1 or more on the R side.
Yeah, I just meant Im not saying Virginia dead in a presidential race played straight. Just think that it is rigged out of play if the Rs are in control
My theory is that this election will hinge on how strong the backlash is against COVID restrictions and how much of a silent majority there is that wants government to be stricter.
If COVID is the driver of '22 elections other than “COVID is now defeated”, then the Dems are stone dead.
Edited for clarity
'22 elections could be a referendum on whether people approve of vaccine mandates. Should Dems change their positions on COVID if they lose?
Well Id probably start by saying that if the Dems want to run in an COVID election after controlling government for two years, they should probably seek to implement federal policies that actually prevent or reduce transmission of COVID and that help the populace deal with COVID. Being the party in power during COVID while doing nothing useful to mitigate COVID besides saying unvaccinated people are bad and prematurely victory lapping the end of masking doesnt really seem like a compelling case for voter turnout. Only COVID relief bill will be 18 months+ in the rearview mirror by then and probably more than offset by the end of rent and student loan relief in the minds of the populace.
What happened? Huge spike for the Dems on PI right now.
There’s a segment of the population that opposes masks and vaccines and anything that restricts them from doing anything they want to do. There’s a segment of the population that wants restrictions to keep those people in line and will turn out more if we drum up their hatred of anti-vaxxers and anti-maskers. The real-world results of COVID policy choices don’t really matter as much as you think they do/should.
Dems aren’t a pro-mask party and are only half a pro-vaccination party, so I dont see this as being as fruitful as you think it is.
Id personally vote for Dems over Republicans gun to head if COVID was the only issue, but not sure Id even bother to show up since Im voting for bad over awful.
How it likely plays out is the silent majority who kinda wishes we wore cloth masks longer, but also is racing to get back to normal as fast as possible, vote Dem but doesnt turnout while the rabid right wing turns out in droves and Dems lose 50-80 seats in the House.
Dems could implement paid leave, national vax mandates, national mask mandates/vax passport system, student loan relief, public health investment, and other mitigation policies that actually would help prevent COVID and allow them to run on a COVID mitigation platform, but I dont see those as in the cards.
It’s super obvious what’s going to happen. Dem turnout is going to suffer after two years of shitlib incrementalism, Republicans (and more specifically super Trumpy Republicans) will take the House and a ton of important state races in 2022, then Trump either “wins” or wins in 2024, lights out Democracy.
Policies don’t matter. Successful policies don’t matter. I don’t believe that simply passing good stuff guarantees electoral victory for Democrats.
Republicans build a narrative. Anti-vaxxers build a narrative. Democrats never build a narrative that unites its various factions. Too many Democrats are committed to the idea that the American system still works if you can just put competent bureaucrats in place. So, they put competent bureaucrats who don’t rock the boat in the party leadership. And they lose because there no compelling story there. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama won the White House as Democrats because they could put out that story.
But it’s a challenge to come up with a narrative that can unite AOC and Manchin. The only thing they have in common is that they are not Republicans and that they see value in a government that does at least some things. The basic role of government is one thing that divides Democrats and Republicans, which is one reason why I choose to self-identify as a statist.
Dems arent united on this, there is a massive split on COVID betwen the Manchin chapter of the party and the AOC chapter of the party. You arent going to get a massive turnout united against anti-maskers, if its a vote on masks it is pretty clear that if it happened today the Manchin wing votes R/stays home
You possibly could against anti-vaxxers (Id bet against it, but possible), but Dems arent even close to doing anything to help support that. Policies that actually benefit people directly do matter, and Im not sure what bureaucrats you are talking about. “Hey we spent $200 billion on climate” may not ultimately matter next election even if positive, but “hey you have 2 weeks paid leave if you get COVID or need to get vaccinated” sure as shit would.
I havent a clue what benefits you could promise the average person to get them to rally around supporting this group of Dems around COVID barring additional actions over the next 12 months. If its “we’ve done enough, back to normal” vs. “we kinda like masks and vaccines”, which is where we would be today, its a 2010 level bloodbath. Dems are in charge, there is tons of COVID, and they are done passing policies to help with COVID, sounds like an absolutely horrible horrible issue to run on.
Maybe someone seeing signs this will go similar to California recall? Lack of enthusiasm from D voters until last minute when enough of them decide “oh fuck no, we are not going to let this Trumpy motherfucker take over our state.”
I think Trolly was mainly asking if there were any datum that would indicate this might be happening. I would be surprised if there were and that the price change wasn’t due to optimistic gamblers betting on their team.
I’m basically not going to be surprised if McAuliffe wins and not going to be surprised if he loses.
It’s about embracing polarization and getting people to hate Republicans as much as possible regardless of what Dems have or haven’t done.
It isnt going to work the way you think, or you are going to have to find a more compelling issue to run on. Doing that on COVID will be complete suicide barring massive changes from where we are today.
The better way to do this would be to cut the center of the party loose, go all in on a class war, and try to win on turnout.
I’m all about shadow suppression of GOP votes.
Stop reminding them of the elections, don’t help them register, don’t call or text anyone but Dems, don’t put signs in your yard that say anything about republicans being bad, etc.
Also maybe not so shadow, but that’s up to individual campaigns. There are ways to do it without actually preventing voting. Just…subtle encouragement against voting.
Am I evil? Maybe. Are the GOP? Most assuredly.