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maybe. i guess if he binked texas somehow, he would convince a bunch of people that he could repeat it in the presidential general. which would probably be hard to lose.
Thatās not happening as he well knows. So the strategy is just to raise money and raise his profile in a loss. Winning TX is not even a runner-runner out for him.
a lot of things could happen that could make it close. abbott might be strangelove. some of their voting changes might backfire, like in 2018/20. information campaigns are going to be newer and more crazy. iām just saying beto could bink, not like a 1 in 4 chance or anything
How would Beto getting under 40% affect Dem strategy for future elections?
Didnāt Beto lose in Texas already?
Http od tƩ gonna win something else?
Winning a gubernatorial race is different than winning a senatorial one.
VT/MA/MD have GOP governors and KY/KS/LA have Democratic governors. All would be deep long shots in a senate race.
Iām not saying that Beto can or canāt win, but itās not crazy for him to try.
LOL I beat goofyballer by literally like 0.5 seconds there.
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Every race should be contested. Itās only a question of how much money to put into it.
This is one of those things that I accept is empirically true, but I have no idea exactly why.
Anyone want to ELI5 it for me?
I donāt know about that. As someone posted earlier, there is a great case for Dems not contesting Utah and just letting Lee duke it out with McMullin.
Iām not sure I can explain it very well, but Iāll try:
Local politics is much more about the individual than the party. And the individual can pick and choose what parts of the national platform they want to adhere to. Whereas, if you go to Washington as a senator, there is much more of an expectation to fall in line with the party. (Yes, there are exceptions, but they arenāt common).
In Vermont, Phil Scott is a āRepublicanā, but his views are much more aligned with a centrist, pro-business Democrat like Chris Coons. Scott is still really popular here, but if he campaigned on āIām going to go to Washington and caucus with Mitch McConnellā, heād have very real problems.
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Bolded is a nice theory, but I have met zero real humans who would vote for one party for Gov and a different party for Senator. But maybe if youāre in a close state, then you donāt need many of these people, so it wouldnāt be that odd to never encounter one irl.
Also, isnāt Scott planning on running for Senate at some point. And if he does, isnāt he basically going to be doing exactly that.
They definitely exist. Phil Scott won in 2018 by 55%-40% on the same day that Bernie won 67%-27%.
I doubt it. If he really wanted it, he would have announced that he was running for Leahyās seat.
And even if he did, I think heād run as an independent who caucuses with Democrats. Itās the only way heād win.
Out of curiosity, how many do you personally know?
I mean, Iāve split plenty of ballots before. But probably not for governor and senator. Usually itās smaller offices. All pre-Trumpism, too.
None that I know with 100% certainty.
But I wouldnāt be surprised if my parents and a lot of their friends did that.
Iām specifically talking about gov/senate. If you want to get creative on the city council thatās a bit different.
Yeah Iāve gone third party for mayor a couple times, and I voted for a state rep or senator who was a moderate Republican over an establishment Democrat who was corrupt as shit, no third party options.
I think thatās as high an office as Iāve ever gone against my party.
I donāt know many people that ticket split IRL, but unless you think electoral results are just completely made up, those people obviously exist.
As just one example, look at MD 2018
In the Senate race, the D got just shy of 1.5 million votes and the R candidate received just under 700,000
In the Governorās race, the R received about 1.27 million and the D was just over 1 million.
There could be some folks who left one or the other races blank I guess, but there had to be a fair number of people who split tickets. And the Republican Governor Larry Hogan is exactly the kind of guy who could win in a blue state by appealing to Suburban moderates. He seems like a reasonable guy and can distance himself from some of the crazier national GOP positions both through his campaign rhetoric and by votersā knowledge that there will still be a blue legislature checking him from getting too wild.