as expected, tightening in AZ-GOV
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591964464093724672
PI jumped from Hobbs 80c to 95c… not the margin Kari Lake needed
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House creeps closer to R majority, as AZ-01 flips:
https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591964977594007552
lead was Hodge +2500 before this dump
Sigh… so glad Dems legit flip seats and then have a ton stolen by scam maps.
This was a must-win. That’s ballgame for house majority.
That wasn’t the final dump though. still, probably won’t flip back.
Seems like dems can’t hold house now right?
2024 looks really fucking bleak. To maintain the senate they have to defend some really tough seats with zero realistic pickup opportunities.
If the GOP can dump Trump they’ll win a trifecta but they’re literally drawing dead to achieving that absent him dying or going to prison (and the second one may not do it).
ugh. Jevin is such an amazingly good dude and a great candidate.
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it is indeed so bleak, that i foresee democrats spending upwards of $100m in texas
So lame. Scam map undefeated.
Thanks Cuomo
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Reminds me of the site that dude put up to troll/shame tbab.
Taco John is literally insane to the point where everyone makes fun of him. Dude never met a conspiracy theory he didn’t embrace.
I think he was the one who thought the govt was sending out some kind of evil ray in doppler radar rings.
Zero realistic pickup opportunities yet. If someone retires and they pick another Walker/Oz, which is at least even money, who knows?
In 2024 we’re defending: AZ, MI, MT, NV, OH, PA, VA, WV, WI.
I like our prospects in MI, PA, VA, WI in a presidential year.
I think AZ and NV are basically flips, and if the GOP splits in two over Trump v DeSantis, we’re favored there.
It comes down to Montana, Ohio, and West Virginia. Can we find a way to lose only one? Having 51 votes matters a lot right now because Manchin can vote against us a ton. This is their version of trying to beat Susan Collins in a way, all three are exceptionally good candidates electorally and are not drawing dead.
Tester won by almost 3.5% each of his last two races. Brown won by almost 13% in 2006, by 6% in 2012, and by nearly 7% in 2018. Dems should dump a shit ton of money into those two races in particular.
Is it sunshine and roses? No. But right now I’m fairly confident we hold the presidency and take back the House in 2024. If we lose the Senate by 1-2 seats, so be it. Gridlock isn’t the end of democracy.
In 2026 we have two tough Senate defenses and we can go after NC, ME, and maybe we luck into another Walker/Oz/Moore/etc. So we’re probably looking at 48-51 seats after 2026, and it may be another win the Senate lose the House situation. I’m looking at having at least 49 after 2026 to have a shot at a trifecta in 2028.
Never the less, I see a path to 2028, and a trifecta then. We can go after WI and NC, but really WI. Get to a trifecta, even with 50 seats, and I like our chances a lot more then of nuking the filibuster than I do now. No way we have Sinema to deal with and hopefully not Manchin. Six years of gridlock should create a ton of pressure to at least do some sort of filibuster carve out for voting rights, ending gerrymandering, and codifying Roe.
Also keep in mind that we’ll have about 10M fewer Boomers in 2028. Boomers dying off should remove about 5% of current voters, and has to net us 1-2%, which could swing North Carolina blue.
A lot of moving parts but I do see reason for a lot more optimism now that we seem to have dodged a lot of the authoritarian equity Trumpism had.
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Just (probably) having actual legit elections moving forward was borderline unthinkable a few weeks ago!
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Hopium thread and the bar are not here.
Good to have some optimism for a change. It’s all still so damn razor thin.
Hopium thread is over there →
I thought Manchin wasn’t running again. If that’s true that’s a lock loss.
Manchin is 75 years old. He’s got like 3 good terms left in him.
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Sure, but he seems like he just wants to enjoy that yacht life without the nuisance of making the occasional appearance in DC.