2022 Midterm Elections (Abandon hope all ye who enter here) butnahhh. or maybe?

I am the whitest person that has ever existed and it is absolutely fucking awesome.

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All people can be coaxed into us/them narratives. Itā€™s part of the human condition.

The dynamic in China and the US is the same, people will want to be in the powerful ā€œin groupā€, whether its white people or Chinese people doesnā€™t really matter.

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Someone went to Mastrianoā€™s victory party just to troll him. They get one-on-one (2-on-1 I guess) time with him at the end of the video.

https://twitter.com/waltermasterson/status/1590716412469080064

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This would be so entertaining

https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1591069936465891328?s=46&t=DTlAMsoXO7nO2fLb_vOUXQ

Is Nancy still the speaker if dems win 218-217? If so I might be rooting for a 218R-217D outcome. I also think Rs trying to impeach Biden with a one vote majority would completely backfire on them worse than overturning RvW did

I think Iā€™d actually want Nancy as speaker with a 218-217 margin, and I think Iā€™m pretty staunch in my hatred of Pelosi. But with a one-vote margin itā€™s all about holding the caucus together and whipping votes, and experience would be at its biggest premium ever. Plus getting anything progressive through would be impossible anyway.

That said, there could be Dems who ran on not voting for Pelosi as speaker.

Dems 218-217 is really a tie to start because one of the candidates is dead right?

EDIT; oh never mind, was only a state rep, thought was a House electee from PA

If its that close a House version of Manchin/Sinema will emerge that suddenly canā€™t vote for anything because of their newfound lifelong commitment to fiscal responsibility.

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Will just be wild too because people do leave the House with some frequency so might get deadlocks and reorganizations and all sort of fun for the next two years. Like how the hell do we write a budget in a 217-217 House?

I have never understood the hate for David Shor.

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I mean at that point itā€™s basically passing budgets, continuing the 1/6 committee, and trying to get very bipartisan reconciliation bills through.

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The hate is that he always magically lands on ā€œdemocrats should win by being republicansā€ even when thatā€™s obviously discredited. The eDem establishment hates Fetterman and tried to tank him in the primary but will never admit they were wrong. Next cycle theyā€™ll once again condescendingly drone on about how electable the next Connor Lamb is. Fuck. Off.

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as long as she wants it, yes

wat

this is like the most obvious thing ever

I typically think the stuff that he says makes a lot of sense!

I donā€™t interpret his message as being, ā€œIn order to win, Democrats must become Republican-lite.ā€ Instead, I think his message is largely, ā€œIn order to win, Democrats must have the message discipline to focus on things that are appealing to a lot of independents.ā€

To further add to the flames, I think Matt Yglesias has roughly the same message, and I agree with it, too. Democrats believe a lot of things and want to accomplish a lot of things. But some of those things are more broadly popular than others. So when campaigning, Democrats should focus their messaging on those broadly popular things, so that when they win, they can actually do all the things.

Hereā€™s an example that I thought was interesting - a discussion of what he (Matt) would focus on in terms of messaging, largely informed by the fact that the median voter is a 50-something white person who didnā€™t go to college and lives in an unfashionable suburb:

You donā€™t have to agree with all of these, but I do think the general theme of ā€œfocus on the things that the median voter cares aboutā€ is a good one, especially because there are so many Democratic policies that the median voter has favorable opinions on.

[I recognize that this will probably get me flamed, but I am feeling strong this morning.]

Edit: And I donā€™t think he (Shor) wants Democrats to replace the Fettermans of the party with Lambs. I think he views Fettermans campaign as a successful illustration of what heā€™s talking about:

As for ideological positioning and message discipline, if you really look at what these candidates actually did, Fetterman took a lot of care to distance himself from a lot of unpopular ideas, including defunding the police.

He really focused on economic issues and reproductive rights. And, as I said earlier, the Democrats who won in close races all generally did that. And I think the importance of their message discipline is illustrated by the fact that they did so much better than Democratic incumbents in safe districts. So I really do see all of this as a victory for the idea that disciplined campaigns that try hard to appeal to the median voter can succeed. The key thing here is that these candidates won by persuading independents. This wasnā€™t a mobilization story.

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where did the porn thing come from? iā€™ve legit never heard that in anyoneā€™s platform or agenda?.. is that some personal crusade the writer of that has?? shutting down porn sites?

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This. One of these things is not like the other. Thatā€™s some puritanism stuff right there, porn addiction has been studied, its very inconclusive I think if its even a problem, and thereā€™s no way its broadly popular. Also if you donā€™t want your kids watching porn its easy enough to lock it out.

Itā€™s definitely odd!

I think itā€™s an attempt to offer bread crumbs to socially conservatives with something that isnā€™t broadly unappealing. Like, as a parent, I donā€™t want my kids accessing porn!

Edit:

I consider myself moderately technologically competent, and I donā€™t think this is true. Even if I were to install a blocker on my kidsā€™ phones, they still get access through their friendsā€™ phones. I mean, at a first glance, Iā€™d conceptually treat it like alcohol. Sure, parents can lock out alcohol in most cases, but is there really harm in legislating a prohibition for kids?

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Hereā€™s another illustration from someone who I think is less controversial than Yglesias or Shor:

Ahead of Novemberā€™s midterm elections, Democrats should offer a straightforward, comprehensive agenda and commit to passing it if they keep control of Congress (or, in the case of the Senate, gain true control). Such an agenda could mobilize the partyā€™s base, woo swing voters and, most important, guarantee that we donā€™t see a repeat of the demoralizing do-little Washington of the past two years.

  1. Eliminate the filibuster.
  2. A national law guaranteeing a right to an abortion in the first trimester and in all cases of rape and incest.
  3. A democracy reform law mandating independent commissions to draw state and congressional districts lines free of gerrymandering; vote-by-mail and two weeks of early voting; proportional representation through multi-member congressional districts; and measures to prevent election subversion.
  4. A ban on the sale of military-style weapons such as AR-15 rifles and high-capacity magazines, along with universal background checks for gun sales.
  5. A minimum income tax of at least 20 percent on billionaires.
  6. A ban on members of Congress buying individual stocks.
  7. National marijuana legalization.
  8. A climate change plan that puts the United States on a path to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.
  9. A required civics and life-skills course for high school seniors, with the same curriculum throughout the country.
  10. Voluntary term limits of 12 years in Congress for all Democrats (six terms in the House, two in the Senate).

Again, the idea is to focus messaging on the Democratic ideas that have the broadest support. This seems not very controversial to me, which is why I donā€™t understand all the hate that Shor gets. (I understand why Yglesias gets hate. I am not a moron.) Maybe I am interpreting Shorā€™s message too charitably?

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