If there are 2,300 votes left, and they’re all from election day, she’s going to be a small favorite to grow her lead there. If he runs white hot and they match the overall Pueblo margins, he’d gain about 200 votes.
He’s drawing super thin. It seems unlikely he’s going to win overseas/military, and he needs to. Then he needs to have significantly more curable ballots, which is possible since his vote will skew heavily towards the mail.
I’d give Boebert a 90% chance of winning as it stands.
So in conclusion, she’s back on Twitter for a good reason: she’s confident.
Going to revise this to a 90% chance of leading when all of the mail-in and election day votes are counted. My ballpark guess is she will lead by at least 200 votes. But I wouldn’t be surprised at all if she led by more like 400 votes. My ballpark guess is that it’ll be about a 375 vote lead.
My wild-ass slightly educated guess is that Frisch can gain a margin of ~300-350 (not a three fiddy joke) votes by curing ballots, some of which he will likely lose back to overseas/military ballots, unless those break his way. I have no idea how many of those there are.
We need to run hot in this last drop from Pueblo, and end the count within 350.
Oh, last thing, that 300-350 gain is if both parties cure mail-in ballots at the same pace and he runs at about 65-35 in mail-in ballots that need to be cured. I’d expect his campaign to be better set up to cure ballots, but I’m also making a wild-ass guess on that margin.
But the race is far from over. Pueblo County Clerk Gilbert Ortiz confirmed to The Denver Post that his office has yet to count about 1,800 in-person votes, 5,200 mail-in votes and is in the process of verifying the signatures of another 500 more ballots. Ortiz’s office is expected to filter updated vote counts to state election officials throughout the day.
The remaining votes could give Frisch a chance to regain the lead: So far, Pueblo County voters leaned toward the Democratic candidate from Aspen 54% to Boebert’s 46%.
Have you not paid attention to how any of this works? Different cohorts come in at different times. It’s all about the outstanding votes - where, how many and what kind. Boebert taking the lead doesn’t necessarily mean it’s over.
5,200 mail-in votes is GREAT news for him. Even if they just run at the 9 point margin, he gains 468 votes there. They should run better than that, since the 9 point margin includes election day votes.
It’s not even hopium, it’s level-headed analysis of the information available. I had Boebert at 90% to end with the lead before this info about most of Pueblo’s remaining ballots being mail-in emerged.
Wait, you were serious when you ‘called the race’ ?
Anyways, I find the data/forecasting work of projecting how something like the Boebert race will end up to be pretty interesting, and I’m fairly certain this is the correct thread for it.
Right, my best estimate is the votes remaining in Pueblo net Frisch 470 votes. He currently trails by 433. We don’t know how much is actually left in Pitkin, the rural counties, and in curable ballots elsewhere. Nor do we know who overseas/military ballots favor (both sides claiming the edge), or how many there are.
