Not great. It’s going to be tight and I’m not sure we can do it.
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590500798361845760?t=Q6w6TmtYBKsnXE4ClQvljg&s=19
LETS GOOOOOOOO
https://twitter.com/kyleclark/status/1590495953144139776?s=46&t=MYQYyDbcwb4yZ05B8AP9PA
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This is going to be incredibly close, like it could easily come down to less than 1,000 votes if my mental math is correct.
dems now 47c on predictit, were 63c+ most of today
Mathing:
We can pick up 7-9K in Washoe.
84K in Clark nets us 17-30K.
Some more mail-ins will trickle in in Clark. Maybe 10K more, maybe 15K. That should net us 3K-5K.
Total is 27K to 44K, and we’ll lose a small amount back to late arriving rural ballots.
Current gap is 23K.
I think CCM eeks it out, but it’s far from a lock.
So we’re still going to have to do the whole debt ceiling hostage thing, not great.
49-51 imo. Lots of chickens got counted.
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Arizonas big dump is in 15 minutes
hopefully the R margin is small enough that we can move past a debt ceiling hostage situation by like promising to dredge a new channel in Tampa Bay or something dumb
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1590503460730187776
Wasserman seems a little mad the last 24 hours or so lol
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God NY is a fucking catastrophe it cost us like 6 seats from pure D incompetence
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I haven’t given up on 51-49. We’re going to be favored in the GA runoff, Kelly looks pretty solid, and we’re flipping with edge in Nevada.
Those Long Island Republicans are going to have a very tough election in two years, they may not be willing to have that hanging around their necks. We should apply maximum pressure on them and we might be able to get them to back down. The margin being so narrow is good.
But…
Yep, this is why I was raging about this when it happened. We had a chance to make the playing field virtually level and eDems were like nope let’s give the GOP some edge!
https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1590503274729570304
This guy nailed the estimate on the Clark County Election Day drop box count, and he expects 40K more to arrive in the mail in the coming days. I was guesstimating 15K on the high end, so he obviously knows better than I do. If we’ve got 100K left in Clark, we’ve got the advantage for sure.
There will be one results dump per night from Clark County, tonight’s should be somewhere around 14K votes that arrived on Monday, I believe.
Aren’t the Washoe ballots going to be at least pink? Maybe that’s what I’m missing.
They can likely be bought off with restoring SALT deductions IMO.
No, there are like 18K that are going to go VERY narrowly for the GOP. There are like 40K that should lean Dem, not sure by how much. That’s based on when they arrived/were dropped off.
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Also on top of all of that, Dems should have more mail-in ballots to cure and the deadline for that isn’t til’ sometime between Friday and Monday. So given that it matters A LOT, expect them to crank up the phone banking operation and get people out to cure those at a high percentage. I think that’s somewhere around 5K ballots, but I could be remembering wrong. Assume they skew 2-to-1 Dem, and assume we cure a lot of them, we could pick up another 1,200 to 1,500 votes there.
To the people who are being a bit pessimistic, let’s put this in perspective. East Coast polls mostly closed over 24 hours ago, and control of the US House has NOT been called yet!