https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590413484595945472
Realllly dont want to run it off for the Senate.
The law being on the books is on them. They need to win the state house and get rid of that law.
Itās better than losing the Senate outright. It will crystalize the stakes and energize both sides. Gonna get nuts.
Ca 3 has Jones behind but mail in and an influx of Bay area transplants since 2020 makes me think its an unlikely but possible flip
27 percent woman swing in the last week?
Sigh,
Praise Oprah
My new prediction is that Dems squeak out a GA run-off to get it to 50/50 and then Sinema switches parties or becomes (I) and caucuses with the Reps in exchange for everything.
iirc nys had a deal in principle between edem and egop to make redistricting independent. this is circa 2010 following the census. egop eventually reneged and edems went ahead with the anti-gerrymander amendment because they felt they had to deliver what they promised. of course, this is pre-tmrp, so the wisdom didnāt exactly pan out.
eh Rās didnāt go anywhere near what they couldāve, they fucked it up too
No.
https://twitter.com/KyleClark/status/1590416335590559744
Whatās left should favor us, though. Thereās a small but non-zero chance the GOP loses the House by one seat and itās hers.
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California needs to gerrymander its 52 seats. Canāt unilaterally disarm, which CA did with a ballot proposition in 2008. There was a ballot prop to get rid of it in 2010 which failed 41.5 - 59.5.
āCaliforniaās new commission is the only redistricting system in the nation that entirely separates redistricting from legislative influence.ā
New York Dems have a trifecta and can repeal their stupid law and gerrymander the state, that should get us back 3-5 seats in 2024. If California repealed that, we should pick up 5-7 more seats there. It would be pretty close to a level playing field.
Itās not that easy. They wrote it into the constitution. They tried to take it out in 21 but it failed by ballot initiative because 21 was a shitty year for dems.
In NY too? These stupid motherfuckers. Ugh.
Yup
ugh i remember this from sports betting. New York process to amend is something like has to be approved by two straight legislatures then approved by voters in an election. Could maybe do it for '26 but probably a '28 event.
In and of itself, this is bad. It probably costs us ~100-150 votes. HOWEVER, if itās indicative of more ballots being out in Clark, itās HUGE for us!
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Iām streaming the Clark County presser, hasnāt started yet. My understanding is > 80K ballots left weāve got a good shot, 100K we have a great shot, > 100K VEGAS BABY VEGAS!!!
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