My guy says they still do that to try to put Biden on the defensive for 2024, and what else are they going to do for two years?
Nah itâs more like the Republicans Tragically Put Their Nuts In A Vice and Started Cranking It.
At this point I think the GOPâs best chances of taking the White House involve bribing Trump not to run (and I donât know how theyâd do that) or Trump dying before the primary.
That said I donât think the Dems will have a trifecta again anytime before 2029. We have a shot at gridlock for six years though and thatâs better than the track we were on.
In the Jan 2021 runoff there was a statewide PSC race where the Democrat lost by like 5 points. GA is pretty clearly still a R+5 state.
The DeSantis / Trump war is going to be awesome and funny but theyâll instantly pivot and support whoever wins, weâve seen this movie before.
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Think youâre way optimistic if you think Biden or Harris is beating DeSantis.
The media is going to slurp DeSantis so hard, he absolutely crushes a general election if he can somehow get rid of Trump.
imo there are a lot of people who voted for Trump who wonât show up for DeSantis, especially with Trump having already taken big chunks out of him and continuing to heckle from the sidelines
They need Trump to experience a medical emergency or buy him off. And the problem with buying him off is heâs the least trustworthy person in history.
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Iâm counting on this guy being correct
https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1590326682854264832
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How does he win the primary without having a sore loser Trump absolutely trashing him leading up to the general?
ehhh, its better than being stone dead but âwell North Carolina is rigged now and probably Arizona, but hey at least a super narrow path that maybe the House will certifyâ sort of illustrates how deep of a hole we ware digging out of here.
Is NC rigged statewide? Weâve still got the governor!
Iâm not giving up on Hobbs yet, but I havenât looked closely at the math.
Lost the state Supreme Court so still an uphill battle to fair elections.
Admire the optimism, and lots of delicious tears to drink, but I dont have it in me to get that fired up given the path ahead.
https://twitter.com/michaelharriot/status/1590223487175491585
Look, I would have voted for Obama for a third term if I could.
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https://twitter.com/AOC/status/1590359514913845249
Sheâs, of course, correct and the Dems very well may lose the House because they lost seats in fucking New York. Lets see if anyone in power pays attention.
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Republican voters will rally around the primary winner. Relitigating the primary during the general is how Dems play the game.
The media gets to play up DeSantis as the reasonable alternative to Trump, suburban voters who were too embarrassed to vote Trump show up, MAGA chuds will love whatever stunts DeSantis comes up with.
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As much as anything it was a failure to counteract the media narrative of CRIME EVERYWHERE even though NYC is still safter than it was even five years ago and SUBSTANTIALLY safer than it was before that. And that doesnât even factor in that people in the fucking suburbs were eating that up when NYC suburbs are like the safest counties in the country!
Adams getting elected mayor was an unfortunate precursor to this that should have let everyone know something had to be done to counteract this narrative. People see a homeless person sleeping on the train and think thereâs some horrible crime wave. It is a tremendous failure of our society to directly associate homelessness and crime.
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Thatâs what normally happens but weâre talking about MAGA Trumpers. Weâre talking about the QAnon people. I donât think itâs anywhere near a given that they all rally around DeSantis. Trump might be Truthing out attacks on DeSantis during the general!
And weâre not talking about trying to beat DeSantis in Florida or North Carolina here, weâre talking about PA/MI/WI. The margins are going to be < 1%, so if DeSantis loses just a few % of the Trumpers in the party, heâs got a big lift.
Essentially if thatâs how it plays out he needs to flip enough Country Club Republicans to offset lost Trumpers. But keep in mind that they only count as flips if they did NOT hold their nose and vote Trump in 2020.
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If you look at the data on the NYT page it doesnât add up to a Boebert win. Sheâs down like 3,000 votes, and if you look at how many votes are estimated still out multiplied by the lean in that precinct it has her falling further behind (I threw out all the > 95%).
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So how many seats were lost via redistricting fuckery and rulings like this?