i have been listening to a lot of podcasts/economic analysis on china. they are going through what’s sometimes referred as second demographic transition, and pretty far into the process too. so everyone expects a contraction because china is also insular compared to others.
this doesn’t mean anything in the short term, but in general china still needs their imports and exports to stay high. they are actually a giant market that buys a lot of raw materials and commodities for domestic use (not just for manufacturing destined for the west). if that somehow got cut, the jolt would be massive. they are currently robbing their non-western trading partners blind (russia and iran), and while that has helped sustain their growth, it’s not at all clear that will be around forever or enough to bail them out of a trade crisis.
It’s pretty amazing how easily the right moved the Overton window so that wanting basically any government help for anyone except rich people makes you a “very liberal voter”. They successfully took advantage of Dems being inside the beltway and out of touch so that they gauge left/right against the people they interact with which is exclusively other beltway insiders and lobbyists and donors. Dems believe that stopping climate change is government overreach!
Sapiens theorizes that Homo sapiens ability to organize around ideas (eg religion) allowed them to form larger groups than, and wipe out, Neanderthals. We’ve seen Facebook foment genocide by letting people organize around misinformation. I don’t think we’re separate species yet, but it’s entirely possible the folks more predisposed to organizing around misinformation wipe out the ones who aren’t.
This is a somewhat interesting article. Certainly part of it is the Dems flat out refusal to actually introduce popular policy that they can point to. But I also think that for the next several years to decades it’s likely that all Presidents will have very bad approval ratings because:
Americans have an unrealistic belief that their global supremacy is a God given right and they will measure everything against that fantasy. It’s The Greatest Country In The World!
Americans have an unrealistic belief that the President can create good outcomes through force of will. It’s The Leader Of The Free World!
With social media reinforcing these false narratives I don’t see how any President gets high approval ratings any time soon. The ascension of China and the decline of American quality of life will be pinned on whoever holds the office.
I mean Biden had a great approval rating. It got fucked up by the media blitz over the Afghanistan withdrawal and never recovered.
He should have taken the momentum and high approval rating after the covid relief bill and got the reconciliation bill passed That’s where he fucked up. When he delayed and let republicans come in and work on the bill in bad faith and work on manchin and cinema he fucked up.
I think they could have gotten the reconciliation bill done if they had moved on it quickly after the covid relief bill. Manchin was asking for like 4 trillion.
But they dragged their feet and gave the donors time to work, right wing media time to work, and everyone to marshal a defense against it.
Then the Afghanistan withdrawal happened and then the supply chain problems became apparent.
I was going to say in the future the key to passing popular legislation will be to ignore republicans entirely and use momentum after your approval level rises to pass a bill before republicans and donors can sabotage it in the media and on the hill.
Well, his approval rating used to be higher but “great” is a bit subjective. He had a lower approval rating in January than, say, W had pre 911.
The point on Afghanistan is correct and is also the prime Exhibit for my overall comment. Americans hate the Afghanistan withdrawal specifically because it conflicts with their internal narratives on American global supremacy. HOW CAN BIDEN LOSE A WAR TO A SHITHOLE COUNTRY I CAN’T EVEN FIND ON A MAP!!!
Even if they don’t know what CRT is, a lot of white Americans instinctively get that it conflicts with their internal narratives on American exxeptionalism.
How much of the fall is due to unhappiness from the left?
I’m sure he’s losing some support from “centrists” and “independents” and their ilk, but I can’t imagine part of this drop is unhappiness from the Bernie wing of the party.
If a pollster asked me, I’d definitely say I disapprove right now. And it’s not because of Afghanistan or my local McDonald’s being understaffed. It’s because Biden is just sitting and watching while nothing happens.
I think the most interesting split is on education. For non-college respondents, his approval rating has gone from net positive to net negative. This probably crosses party lines. Non-college educated conservatives are in a grievance spiral and will increasingly hate Biden until his calls Obama the N-word on national TV or something (“I like that he says what we’re all thinking!”). Non-college educated liberals are getting thrown under the bus by ineffectual Dems who are navel gazing about SALT deductions instead of helping people that need help the most.
Pretty good thread that somewhat goes against thinking here, what if passing BBB in the way we want isn’t enough to turn the tide of voters? I guess waaf.