Better not tell you now
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Also I should say I have no hope and there is a sick part of me hoping the Dems lose by as much as possible so I will probably be fine.
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The kids are turning out?
https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1590056851693240321?t=H-9bwUrSrFLgjf1r0X-KSA&s=19
Philly is running ahead of 2018 turnout but it seems clear to me that it is not going to come close to 2020 levels.
Trump activating all of the dormant deplorables and giving them a team to root for was the end. They want fascism more than everyone else wants democracy by a wide margin and whether the end comes tonight or not you can rest easy knowing that it’s coming soon and there’s no good way to stop it the way things are.
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No, the kids are not turning out. The kids never turn out.
There could be a draft and the kids would not turn out. They move around too much and don’t watch cable news.
Pretty sure someone was asking about the needle upthread. Good news! The Needle: Senate and House Election Results Forecast 2022 - The New York Times
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Deplorables live for this shit, it’s all they have. It’s over for America.
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Ballparking it, looks like Philly turnout is going to be in the 570K-600K range, and I’m being conservative. If the voting rate increases after work versus the current rate, it’ll be higher.
2018 was 554K and we won the Senate race going away. 2020 was 749K.
Rural voters are going to have to hit closer to 2020 turnout than 2018 to win this I think. I feel FANTASTIC about Shapiro and hopeful about Fetterman.
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Right after I posted this, the Philly hourly turnout rate increased. I’m considering betting Fetterman. I think it’s a flip at worst.
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Hopefully this is just a few nutters with fake badges.
https://twitter.com/dburghart/status/1590013354915266560?s=20&t=AsxvmLwQaRp6m_rqZ23O1A
I will take the Oz side if you want to bet since no one wanted my Senate control action.
Always bet on the worst possible outcome. It’s America.
I’d be worried about some slippage in the massive D margins in D strongholds like Philly because of the crime panic and inflation. 2016-2020 all people talked about in cities was how much they hated Trump with the fire of a thousand suns and pretty much anything else was either irrelevant or further confirmation Trump was terrible. Now, imo, there is a crack for Rs to peel a few % away on other BS.
Agreed but so far it appears turnout in South Philly (the conservative part) is not pacing as well as turnout in the more liberal areas. Could lose some of the wealthy Center City vote, though.
Ok I’ll let you know. You’d take the PI odds at the time we bet?
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PI odds are ambiguous depending of which of the four bets they offer you use. But if you feel like betting later just let me know what odds you have in mind.