eli5 on the rain thing - is it good or bad for us?
Generally good, Dem turnout and āmore risky candidatesā tend to suffer from incliment weather.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1111/j.1468-2508.2007.00565.x
āMore registered Democrats (27 percent) say that bad weather conditions would impact whether they make it to the polls than registered Republicans (20 percent), the survey also found.ā
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Final 538 odds 59/41 R Senate. Nevada actually tightens, but reasonably big late move towards Oz (57/43) and Walker (63/37).
Losing 51-49 with Oz beating Fetterman the worst case scenario for progressives so I expect that to happen.
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Isnāt it ironic
51-49 GOP would be a huge win at this point. Sign me up.
Would be horrible. Still get zero judges and zero control of the Senate while the centrists take the absolute wrong lessons away from the PA race.
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Just heard a radio ad for my incumbent Democrat NJ-5 rep (Josh Gottheimer) that only mentioned that heās in favor of funding the police so they can protect us, and enacting reasonable energy policies that lower gas prices. No mention of party affiliation at all. So thereās a strategy I guess.
Norcal dems are doing this too, āIāll tell both parties they are wrong when they do things I donāt likeā instead of telling us what monsters the reds are
Everyone I voted for this morning is going to win. I presume everyone here throughout the country will have similar results for their own local elections, right? Rightā¦
Hopium thread thataway
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So are we doing two gameday threads, one for hopium and one for nopium?
Nah, just this one. The other one is a safespace from the impending implications of trying to live with the low lifes that are your species implied by the results and thoughts portrayed in this thread.
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If 41% D Senate is even remotely accurate there is a ton of money to be made in the betting markets betting on Dems.
I voted for what I honestly felt and believed was the optimal ticket in my district here in MA.
Governor & Lt. Governor: Maura Healey & Kim Driscoll
Attorney General: Andrea Campbell
Representative: Katherine M. Clark
I also voted yes on all ballot questions. 
[Edited to add: If anyone cares, I also voted across-the-board Dem on all of the opposed down-ballot races.]
So how many states gubernatorial races (that are in play) are proxy elections for the 2024 presidential race?
Pennsylvania (19ev) - Mastriano is literally an insurrectionist
Michigan (15ev) - Dixon has said Trump won in Michigan in 2020
Wisconsin (10ev) - Michels told supporters that if he wins the GOP will never lose again in WI.
Arizona (11ev) - Lake said she wouldnāt certify Bidenās win in AZ in 2020 if it was up to her
Maine (3ev) - Iām just assuming LePage is in this group, heās nuts
Georgia? (16ev) - Not sure if Kemp would do stuff in '24 he didnāt do in '20.
Nevada? (6ev) - Not sure how nuts Lombardo is here.
After the census, Bidenās 2020 results would net 303 electoral votes, so we can only afford to lose 33 electoral votes.
538 has us with the following chances of winning:
PA 97%
ME 88%
MI 85%
WI 47%
NV 39%
AZ 32%
GA 6%
If those forecasts hold, and the worst case scenario plays out in terms of Kemp and Lombardo, weād see 43 electoral votes go off the table, rendering it impossible to win in 2024.
Wisconsin may be the whole ballgame. If we hold Wisconsin and lose NV, AZ, GA, and those governors go full bore to make it impossible to win and get certified, the GOP is guaranteed 268 electoral votes and we can win 270-268.
It sure is fun having to hit a parlay of winning every single election in this meta to have democracy survive! GJGE Dems.
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Did my duty. Sadly only Senate, Governer, state rep and state sen on the ballot so no chance to write in F TRUMP on the no opposition races.
Oddly I was offered only a D sample ballot on the way in. No one passing out R info at 10:30.
Every deplorable I know is so fired up to vote hard. Theyāre all showing up. Weāre so fucked
Donāt forget all of the state-level Secretary of State, Attorney General and legislature races that are likely going to go hard red.