I assume there would need to be a comma or 2.
GOP is -2000 to win the house on Bovada
And in 2024, itāll best to vote for Trump in order to avoid having a Dem pres for two consecutive terms.
Well sure, but weāve known that since November 11th, 2020
GOP 90% to control the House on PredictIt.
Biden only 35% to be impeached by 6/30/23 on PredictIt.
If the second market wasnāt going to be forced to resolve in mid-February, Iād still be maxed on it and Iād hedge it with a bet on the Dems to win the House lolā¦ Those are the only two possible outcomes.
Is it safe to go back to predictit? 35% to impeach seems bonkers.
I donāt have any money on there, the markets cannot continue past some date in February, and that market is supposed to run until June.
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What are they impeaching Biden over?
I forget what the odds of my no impeachment bet are or who itās with, but my side is still good. Biggest risk is I wonāt figure them out.
Any/Every thing.
For instance, I heard he fell off his bike. Obv impeachment is obv
-2000 R House is insane, the polls only need to be like 1% off and you lose
3 Likes
You shout like that they impeach. Right away. No trial, no nothing. Journalists, we have a special jail for journalists. You are stealing: impeach. You are playing music too loud: impeach, right away. Driving too fast: impeach. Slow: impeach. You are charging too high prices for sweaters, glasses: you right to impeach. You undercook fish? Believe it or not, impeach. You overcook chicken, also impeach. Undercook, overcook. You make an appointment with the dentist and you donāt show up, believe it or not, impeach, right away. We have the best congress in the world because of impeach.
13 Likes
Yeah that seems like a legit bad line to me. Itās not that I think the Dems are going to hold the house or anything, just that I donāt think I trust any of the information Iāve gotten about anything in the last 6 years from anyone to lay those kinds of odds against almost anything remotely plausible.
yeah in this polarized environment saying that there is a 95%+ chance that either side is going to win is really bad. i think a lot of assumptions are being made that since the polls were skewed toward D in 2018 and 2020 that means the same thing is automatically going to happen this time. if i had to guess i would say Rs will outperform polling but nowhere near 95%, more like a 65-70% chance. every single election there is always something that comes out after the fact that people didnt account for before the vote, there are too many unknowns to be more than 65-70% sure that either side will win
Polling with 400 respondents and fudging to make the numbers close is pretty new. Standard 20 years ago was 2,000.
95% maybe slightly high, but also closer to accurate that 65%. Id bet some ungodly percentage of my net worth if I could get R House -200.
Yeah same but itās -2000.
yeah obviously not betting that, but i didnt sprint to bet the +1400 other side either. I dont really think 65-70% accurate either, too optimistic.
Sprinkled +260 Dem Sen/R House