I would add as a factor that 2020 success was based in large part on Dems’ success pushing mail-in voting during the pandemic. Really tough to say whether that was a one-off situation or what.
Also GOP fuckery/war on voting, which has basically become formalized voter intimidation in places like Georgia, where an unknown number of people have had their voting status “challenged” by conservative groups and have to submit a provisional ballot and make a statement to the poll officer about why they are in fact eligible to vote.
Well, the last time the Republicans had all three houses under Trump they still didn’t even repeal Obamacare and passed almost zero legislation. Mitch McConnell to the rescue.
Abortion is basically the only wild card in favor of the Democrats.
I’m very pessimistic, but a dominant victory for Democrats isn’t really that far-fetched.
Everything else about the state of the country is pointing away from Democrat success. Without the SC ruling, I really think Democrats are looking at losing senate seats in NV/AZ/GA/NH and maybe CO. This still might happen, but it’s a lower probability.
