Oh good a framing that will be distilled down to “mentally ill people attack regular people with hammers” by the press the median person. Nothing to see here guys, just a Crazy Person, certainly the Republican calls for violence against Dem leadership have nothing to do with it.
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There is a lot of complaining among eDem types that golly gee whiz we have to run on cooperating with Republicans and being milquetoast moderate losers and our love of the police and military because thats just what it takes to be competitive in real America. There’s a lot of this articulated in the article below.
What this analysis completely misses is that, to the extent its true, which it undoubtedly is to some degree, thats mostly the Democrats’ fault! They didn’t have to embrace globalization and telling fired workers to learn to code, that was a choice deliberately made by elected Democrats bought and paid for by corporations.
Just like Republicans, they tried to trick people with bullshit. The GOP is out there saying “you’re getting screwed” - that’s a very appealing message and its not entirely untrue. Of course these people are idiots voting against their own self interest but they can be forgiven for thinking Democrats are full of shit. At least the Republicans make them feel like they’re on a team.
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I guess I’ll take “hoping the polls aren’t undercounting mouthbreathing idiots” over “lol WAAF” but they’re basically the same.
https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1587033651069452291?s=46&t=JXVWr08wt3Mi6ZlMmPmJGA
I’m Jewish, but I’m probably joining this guy’s church:
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I fucking love the ladies in the front dancing in a circle like they’re in a 90’s mosh pit
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https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1587045818246332417?t=rwsnc0w2365s22qb8DAthA&s=19
https://twitter.com/SimonWDC/status/1587059647109791744?t=FL_fhnMcB8WMh8agMIJQJQ&s=19
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That’s nice. Maybe Dems will only lose the House by 15 seats instead of 30.
Fuck that brick wall hurts. Was certain I’d run straight through it.
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To be fair there’s probably some threshold of “infinite impeachments & default on debt” and not doing that if they barely win the house. +10 maybe? Who knows.
ok why should we believe this guy? what’s the theory here? GOP inflates poll averages and then uses that to “prove” shenanigans when they actually lose?
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That is true, guessing it is a very small number though. Ten might be optimistic, we’ll have to see.
LOL manipulation of polls.
Reminder than in Maine in 2020 Susan Collins was losing in literally every poll from the summer through election day and wound up winning by 8 points. When has anything like that happened for a Democrat in recent memory?
Maybe these GOP polls are just helping bring the average back to reality.
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I’m just posting a hopeful take. I did not vet it, but it’s a counterpoint to waaf narratives.
Now I know how the “unskewing the polls” guys felt.
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Maybe that. Also, the theory might be that Republicans throw out biased polls to skew the averages and push the media away from a narrative of Democratic momentum that might encourage D voters and discourage R voters.
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I feel like any of that is just a fringe benefit. They’re all over positive polls for Republicans because it maximizes the possibility for retroactive riggage/disputing results.
At first
But then
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Agree, if the media narrative this week continues to be “dem support collapsing, even bad candidates like Walker and Masters are surging, all anybody cares about is the economy” that will absolutely impact D turnout through Election Day.
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Obama winning Indiana
I think this election is EXTREMELY hard to prognosticate. I’ve made a decent amount of money betting elections and I’m not touching this one. IMO you’ve got a bunch of conflicting factors, and it’s virtually impossible to figure out how they all coalesce into one outcome:
- Inflation hurting average folks
- Unemployment is low, though
- Typical red wave year
- Dobbs/GOP lunacy on abortion increasing Dem motivation to turn out
- eDems not getting enough done to motivate people
There’s at least some chance that #4 is going to crank Dem turnout to the max and make this more like a presidential year, while #5 is leading pollsters to underestimate Dem turnout. Like if they polled me, I’d say I’m a Dem voter, but if asked how enthusiastic I was, I’d say not very. So they may estimate a relatively low chance I turn out, but it’s 100%.
Of course I wouldn’t be surprised if Dem turnout was low/typical for a midterm year after winning the presidency, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Independents broke for the GOP based on their interpretation of who’s better on the economy.
I truly have no idea what to expect. I learn towards WAAF but with a shit ton of variance, which is good for Dems in general in the dynamic we’re in. So go variance! Let’s get lucky!
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