I honestly think that the failures of Congress didn’t have that much to do with this loss.
polls in CA vastly overestimated R support, polls VA were either good at the end or underestimated R’s again pending the rest of this shit hmmmm I’ll have to do some work on this I have an idea of what’s causing this now–wish I did on some county PI markets since there was some free money I missed if I had.
Mostly agree, the best political insight of the last 20 years has been for the Rs to radicalize white voters into a bloc that votes more like other minority blocs, and gg for the rest of our lives as a result.
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Don’t fret guys. What this election clearly shows is that if McAuliffe had more time to campaign on SALT being in BBB he would have won. Chalk it up to bad timing on the announcement. Thankfully the dems running 2022 have almost a full year to talk about it.
I mean sure, there’s not going to be student loan relief, or real drug price negotiation, or child care, or medicare expansion or any of that, but goddamnit, we’re getting SALT, and that affects like a handful of states that were going to vote blue anyways.
The Dems know what they’re doing.
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Given that turnout is always lower in non presidential years, the key is relative turnout.
My bet is stuff like CRT energizes enough R and I* voters to vote but there was nothing for suburban Ds to bother and turn out.
https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1455704291465994240
https://twitter.com/matthewstoller/status/1455704727572856835
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dem turnout looks good for an off election year and things not going well,R’s just absolutely crushed it
2020
Biden 2.4m
Trump 1.95m
2021 (~75%)
McAuliffe 1.1m. (1.5m est)
Youngkin 1.3m (1.7m est).
2017
Northam 1.4m
Ed Gillespie 1.2m
So turnout is good for D’s where good is defined as regular times and not we are steps away from facism times.
Rs are getting close to presidential year turnouts basically telling me that Ds were relatively unenthused compared to Rs even if the turnout level is on par with typical off years.
Ok, I give up. You guys win. WAAF.
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well if NJ goes R it’s very over, that’s at worst the 6th best dem state. carter/reagan type shit I’d guess CA/NY/something and that’s about it unless they change course and now.
I feel strangely unburdened. Its like dominoes falling into place based on what this forum dissected months ago. “Got my n*ts up and my passport ready.”
Nuts?
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All I know is I can’t do this next year, or in three years. I’m going to make plans to be in the woods with no internet access next year, and be driving around New Zealand in 2024 looking for a wife.
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Truly making plans to peace out in mid-2024. We all know what’s coming. gg
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I don’t have an option to leave this country. Or maybe I do, but that option is worse than living in Trump’s America. All I know is that they’re not taking me alive.
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