to be fair to krugman-face. here’s the rest of his column. i guess the point is that gop will play calvinball with everything and inflation is no different. combined with everyone’s inner boomer who plays with emotions every time you go to the supermarket to pick up 7 gallons of milk or a large nachos casserole, and it will overshadow any average some government egghead computed and published.
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https://twitter.com/PollProjectUSA/status/1556630290579066880?s=20&t=F6LJikmfN02GYJUs1uLXdA
Does Demings have what you would consider a realistic chance of beating Rubio? (Using your personal definition of “realistic”)
- Yes
- No, this poll is a mirage
- I don’t know
0
voters
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I’d say the Florida race is the most unlikely pickup that I would still call “reasonable”. By reasonable, I’m thinking somewhere in the 2-5% range.
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I’m at 100%. Fingers crossed but no hope.
Abortion?
I have this weird feeling that Missouri isn’t completely hopeless if there’s a serious abortion effect, since the Dems are running a woman against a deplorable with a conservative third-party candidate in the mix for an open seat.
Well completely ignoring the “former felons get to vote” ballot initiative that won by like 15 points helped.
No, the Dems will not be competitive in Missouri. The only sliver of false hope died in the Republican primary.
My answer would be “Yes, but this poll is a mirage,” so I voted I don’t know.
Even if we figure it’s 55-45, she’s got a chance if she runs a great campaign focused on a woman’s right to choose and catches a couple breaks. Maybe 25% equity in that event. Probably not a huge chance she runs a great campaign since she’s an eDem iirc, so maybe 5-10% chance overall.
Missouri is too big a reach to be hopeful imo. Trump won by 15 points in 2020.
Lol at Demmings picking off a moderately popular Hispanic republican incumbent senator from FLORIDA in a Republican wave year. All the lols in the world at that pole. Rubio is going to win by at least 10 points.
He’s actually not that popular. The poll that had him tied also had him underwater in favorability. I’m also not convinced that it will be a Republican wave year.
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Wait, we’re actually taking a partisan poll from Progress Florida showing the D tied with Little Marco in an increasingly red state as a sign that Rubio is in danger of losing? This isn’t just a bit? Come on man.
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I think that Rubio has a legitimate chance of losing (DeSantis, too) if the Kansas referendum is a sign that Florida passing a ban on abortion after 15 weeks will cost Republicans at the polls. He will probably win, but I don’t think it’s a guaranteed victory, especially if he runs a poor campaign and Demings runs a great one.
I’d agree with a chance in the sense that the universe is infinite and anything is possible. However, the only time the incumbent party managed to hold/pick up seats in the midterms in recent memory is after 9/11 and as bad as Dobbs is I’m pretty sure most people aren’t going to base their votes on it as much as that. I think there’s a shot the Ds hold the Senate just because the Rs nominated such shitty candidates, but no better than 51-49 and more likely 50-50 (I think NV is toast and the Ds pick up PA). I’m guessing the Rs pick up something like 20-25ish house seats on their way to a comfortable majority but not a total bloodbath like 2010, mostly because they’re not nearly as far in the minority as they were then so they have fewer to win.
yeah, but it’s a woman that 100% would be one of the villians in THE PURGE.
Are you referring to Little Marco? That thirsty flip flopper with no backbone?
There was a time he was moderately popular, but that was in the before Trump era.
I don’t know of I can do the whole “good poll results get my hopes up” thing again for the next 3 months. The hopium crash is too painful.
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All that means is Budd is winning 54-46.
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