Ralston says we’re looking for 80K+ mail-in ballots in Clark County to be announced for Cortez Masto to be the favorite, if she’s leading them 65-35. She could be leading them bigger.
100K ballots and winning them 63-37 works, too.
I have family in both ca-13 and ca-27. Pessimistic but possible in 13, more pessimistic on 27, and I regard 22 as fool’s gold.
NBC now 222 +/-7, still feels wider but closer to reasonable.
I used to be in the House, until I took an arrow in the knee.
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https://twitter.com/MattGertz/status/1590408937752645633
Amazing when Republicans are behind in the count and could use some post election counts the stop the count chants stop
That’s my reply to a couple posts about it. Dems created a law banning gerrymandering then tried to do it anyway. Shot themselves in the foot.
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So in other words… they are dems.
MUH norms!
Ron Johnson is going to win Statewide in Wisconsin by less than 1%, and the GOP will take 6 of 8 US House seats there. Hochul is going to win New York by like 5, and the Dems will take 16 of 27 it appears?
So obviously they could have gerrymandered their way to at least 20, which may end up deciding the entire US House.
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Sounds like NY needs to be ground zero for the work to do.
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woat reference
Ny has a law on the books that says no gerrymandering. They yolod and did it anyway. The high court said lol no, a right leaning special master drew the new maps, and here we are.
Anybody else call it yet?
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590413484595945472
Realllly dont want to run it off for the Senate.
The law being on the books is on them. They need to win the state house and get rid of that law.
It’s better than losing the Senate outright. It will crystalize the stakes and energize both sides. Gonna get nuts.
Ca 3 has Jones behind but mail in and an influx of Bay area transplants since 2020 makes me think its an unlikely but possible flip
27 percent woman swing in the last week?
Sigh,
Praise Oprah
My new prediction is that Dems squeak out a GA run-off to get it to 50/50 and then Sinema switches parties or becomes (I) and caucuses with the Reps in exchange for everything.
iirc nys had a deal in principle between edem and egop to make redistricting independent. this is circa 2010 following the census. egop eventually reneged and edems went ahead with the anti-gerrymander amendment because they felt they had to deliver what they promised. of course, this is pre-tmrp, so the wisdom didn’t exactly pan out.