in person votes are hard R apparently, like way way higher than anyone thought
it doesn’t matter, except I’ve had to bail out of a county I thought was reasonably safe welp.
Also shows people who thought mail in ballots wouldn’t be much of a imbalance after 2020 are wrong.
Mail in ballots favors dems because its super easy and lots of dems work during the day/work week and a lot of Republicans either don’t or have no problem taking off. Which is why places like GA/FL banning mail in voting is horrible for us.
Republicans are still all in on refusing to vote by mail because its fraud. I know several Trumpers push that shit still including my dad despite me and moms both voting by mail.
even Orange is moving toward yes in the betting market
what I get for following two people on twitter that said that was impossible. I knew not to blow it on D too early on the mail ins first but ffs.\
I still don’t see it, but I guess it’s within 5 now. Assuming fresno yes at this point but idk what’s left for that.
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French Laundry celebration?!
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Maybe some good news from the recall? Then again it might just be moderates hating Elder? But I would think if they hate Elder they would have hated Trump?
Democrats running ahead of their 2020 results in Orange County
here’s a County right next to Sacramento where the highest amount of college educated voters on the entire county went for Trump…went blue tonight - Placer County
Probably nothing but hopefully a good sign for the midterms. At least its good that democrats weren’t complacent, hopefully they’re really motivated in 2022 as well.
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I think there’s a group of people that are basically deplorables and vote Republican nationally because they hate taxes and immigrants, but locally they will vote more Dem because they actually want the government services that they personally consume. Deplorables are characterized by caring only about things that obviously affect them personally. Electing a dysfunctional state or muni government will start to affect them personally.
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Biden needs to be on TV this morning crowing about how he put Newsome over the top.
Disagree strongly. Republicans and Elder made this case. Dems just said “don’t vote yes”.
Is there any data on which factor made people so hard for no here?
Is it more that:
A) People actually like Newsom as governor?
B) People were terrified of what emerged as the clear alternative in Elder?
If it is B, is it possible that if the obvious Republican frontrunner was a Phil Scott/Charlie Baker/Larry Hogan type the outcome may have been different?
Some people are saying it was maybe the greatest Presidential endorsement of all time!
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I think that like him or not, he benefitted greatly from a huge budget surplus. People see that and think he must be doing a good job
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I don’t need data to know that it isn’t option A. I’m sure somebody out there actually likes Newsom, but I haven’t met them. So yes I agree we might have been in trouble if Larry “I don’t believe in a minimum wage” Elder hadn’t emerged as the frontrunner. But I think that says a lot about Republicans in CA. Elder emerged because he was the Republican that was most appealing to their voters. I mean, John Cox lol.
With regard to the virus, I think Newsom owes a debt of gratitude to DeSantis and Abbott. California’s state-level handling of COVID has been far from perfect, but people see Texas and Florida and are glad that’s not what’s been happening here. IMO.
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I mean, he has a neraly 60% approval rating. Clearly some people like Newsom or at the very least the job he is doing
Are people like this even allowed in the Republican party anymore?
Not to be too much of a nit, but as of this morning, I’m seeing Placer County 51-49 on YES, so it’s not that big of a swing.
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No I’m making the case that not endorsing doesn’t win. Only running an Arnie - high profile, moderate R that people trust, could possibly win in CA. Screw energizing the Trumpers - they’ll all vote no anyway. And they can vote for their Trumpy guy and then be pissed when the RINO wins. But the R party clearly needed a different strategy.
Elder made that case to his voters.
But there were plenty of other ads and bots and stuff targeted at Democrats to the tune of, “This isn’t about partisanship. This is about integrity. I’m a liberal democrat and I’m voting to replace Newsom with another Democrat.” etc.
The Dems managed to get the message out pretty well that all that stuff was BS and if Newsom goes down, Elder or someone like him will win. Telling people not to vote for a candidate was a good move to bring that home.
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People aren’t nuts about Newsom but not hating him to the point like Gray Davis in 2003. Newsom’s overall approval rating was like 55% or something. Davis’ was 30%? I forget the numbers but it was a huge disparity.
And as long as you can tie Elder to Trump, which Elder did himself, that will energize CA Dems to get out and vote.
locally-slanted, but definitely answers some of your questions
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