So this weekend might make or break the CA 50 race. SDUT is fielding a poll all weekend and they’ll announce results on Tuesday.
Currently, our district has 129k ballots returned, 51k Dem, 46k R, and the rest NPP or stupid tiny parties. Dems have been running 5K ahead of Rs for the past several days. The bad news: there are only 128k registered dems in the district, with 170k Republicans, and 97K NPPs. Our very small and not random sample of R voters we’ve texted show us winning 18% of them, if that holds, we’ll win easily.
Either way, this poll will determine the momentum of the last week. It’ll be nice to have an independent poll. God, I hope it turns out ok.
Edited to add: The UT uses SurveyUSA, which is an A-rated pollster
Yeah except the president is daily getting up on stage and accusing his political rivals of treason, a capital offense. So um I guess he’s not calling them pedos so they got that going for them. Well except Hunter.
Just a reminder that the worst possible hypothetical world that white conservatives can imagine for themselves is more or less the world that black people live in today.
preet had a hot take awhile ago that something happened to lou dobbs, apparently he was decent at some point. i don’t remember the time like that, but thinking back, 9/11 and the following push for war against terrorism probably accelerated whatever mental declines were already underway
No it’s terrible for the Democratic Party and here’s why: the GOP needs a con to get most of their voters to vote against their economic self-interest. They’ve used abortion and racism, but they were about to start losing big nationally from demographics shifting and now they’ve got QAnon. It buys them time, and most of all they now know that they can pump some bullshit conspiracy theory out there and away 25% of voters. Thus they can lose 49-26 on policy and still win 51-49.
That’s over simplifying it, but it’s bad and that says nothing of how awful it is for the country at large.
The key is that if the GOP gets swept in this election and Dems have the votes to nuke the filibuster and the intelligence to pass HR1+, the GOP is dead as we know it.
Like imagine a landscape with universal automatic voter registration, election day as a national holiday, no gerrymandering, no voter suppression, DC+PR statehood, etc.
With current policies and alignments that makes Georgia and North Carolina blue, Texas and South Carolina purple, and probably Kansas and Missouri purple.
It kills the GOP. Lindsey’s seat could be #50 or #49 to mean DiFi and Manchin’s votes matter. They’re potentially punting it, and it’s a massive massive error on their part that could be the difference between whether they can continue as a science denying racist fascist party or whether they have to admit climate change is real and kiss the oil money goodbye, admit healthcare is a right and kiss the insurance money goodbye, etc etc.
Well sure but it’s not binary. Right now if you could flip a switch and everyone knew QAnon was bullshit, Mitch might lose his own seat, let alone the Senate.
Win or lose on 11/3, and obviously I’m rooting for you guys, I really really hope you get a good poll here and get some money pumped into the race down the stretch. Hopefully there are no ifs and you know you got the financial support needed from the DCCC or DNC and the chips fall where they will.
I also find sweats like these fascinating. It’s the stuff hardly anyone pays attention to, but it’s huge for the race down the stretch.
Dobbs seemed ok when he was at CNN until he made a rather abrupt hard right turn on immigration. I don’t think anyone saw it coming. A month or two after that he was out at CNN and then Fox Biz picked him up when it launched I think and he’s been ensconced there in deplorable glory since.
I’m saying that the GOP as currently constructed on non-Q positions could not maintain enough power to govern at the federal level without the support of the QAnon base.
I guess some percentage of them are GOP voters anyway, but some percentage are also non voters absent QAnon, and they cannot afford to lose them.
QAnon allows the GOP to keep contending with a far right science-denying platform.
in some ways QAnon stuff is just an accelerated recycling of GOP old strategy which had stopped working. it took republicans decades to build up multiple lines of attack natratives against bill and hillary. then trmpizm came along and any fantasy could be amplified once a day. now some rando online is just naming names and pointing fingers with no logical thread at all, and the base is not questioning it one bit. is qanon less strategic than gop? yes. is it bigger? no. is it more dangerous? probably.
Q’s going to lose a ton of steam when “the storm” never comes. How will they explain Trump losing the election and not unleashing the thousands of secret indictments in the lame duck?
