https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1319703933598793730?s=21
For reference this is referring to Alaska, Montana, South Carolina, Kansas
Based on this the maths are simple
Odds at least 1 flips: 68%
At least 2 flip: 25%
At least 3: 5%
All 4: <1%
āMore like Cray Higginsā
This is really encouraging math.
So Trump has a slightly worse chance of winning the presidency than we do of taking two of these seats.
That said, itās probably pretty likely that Iām overstating Nate thread upon rereading it. Heās probably saying that there is a measure of independence but they arenāt entirely independent. I donāt know of a math equation to calculate that, but logically that would mean that the chance that 1+ state flips decreases but the chance multiple states flip increases.
Halfway independent would look something like 50% 1+ flip, 18% 2+ flip, 10% 3+ flip, 5% all 4 flip
@boredsocial is this your district? Iāve posted about Julie Oliver before, still think itās a long shot but this is a really good ad.
https://twitter.com/sawyerhackett/status/1319751449002344449?s=21
https://twitter.com/JasonSCampbell/status/1319749236251070466
2020 where the most ridiculous things happen like the sentence of
I agree with Lou Dobbs
Sheās drawing thin, but not dead, and sheās progressive. Threw her a small donation. Hopefully itās not too late for the money to help. Sheād be awesome to have in Congress.
thatās interesting and a bit scary.
I mean weāre very clearly just taking 538 as the base and tweaking our thoughts a bit one way or another based on how pessimistic or optimistic we like to be. But everything is still based on Nate correcting any errors from 2016 and in fact being overly cautions.
These results sure look like Rs were outperforming the model.
That seems big. Get rekt Lindsey.
That clip is absolute insanity. I donāt even know where to start.
I donāt swear! Vote Cornyn.
that really gonna ****ing work as a campaign ad?
The connection here is Nateās model overvalued the incumbent in every race you mentioned.
in oh god now what for a very winnable race news
thereās a mark kelly as hitler in halloween picture in a yearbook starting to float out there. (lol mcsally campaign not finding this if true btw)
Oh for fuckās sake.
This should shore up the GOP vote for him at least
So far only denials that was mark including from the senate campaign manager.
Original pusher of this was the guy who found the northam blackface pictureāweird fetish of everyoneās yearbook I guess.
lol Lou Dobbs is so far up Trumpās ass that heās telling deplorables not to vote for another deplorable.
lolllllllllll, get fucked Lindsey
Orders for the Lindsey hit had to come from Trump.