fwiw i try not to outthink myself with candidate chances, at least for donations. for senate i just went with PEC’s moneyball states, which jump around a lot, and are currently AK >> MT > everything else. that just seems crazy but what do i know. i’m not a statistician
Those seem like really conservative numbers for AZ, CO, and ME. AZ and CO have to both be 90%+ and ME 75-80%
he puts in way too many points for incumbency. Your numbers are very close to betting market numbers right now.
NC more likely than ME seems insane to me.
part of it is both GA senate races go to a runoff if nobody gets 50% but I agree with you fwiw.
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Martha is pretty bad but Arizona is a legit purple state. Hyde-Smith is running in one of the reddest states and still has a non-zero chance of blowing it.
yeah I guess I should change that to “worst possible incumbent-ish R” (not really sure if we consider someone who was appointed and then won a special election a true incumbent or not)
Mcclintock being likely and not lock should be really concerning to the reps.
I mean, hes not going to lose but this should be one of the lockiest locks in CA
Beto not running for senate in 2020 is like Biden not running for president in 2016.
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I was surprised seeing NY-18 Maloney listed as a competitive race because I thought that referred to Carolyn Maloney, who Nate has as >99% chance of winning. But that’s actually NY-12, and NY-18 is Sean Maloney, who Nate gives a 90% change of winning.
Has anyone else been looking at the House model?
They are forecasting an average pickup of 4.4 seats for the Dems
Why are there two Rs in the Senate election?
Georgia basically has a jungle primary in their general election.
NY-22 had a really good poll for Brindisi but it’s actually tough, D’s already got most of the gettable seats in 18. They might well lose a few net seats here even with biden winning.
That said, I don’t buy their odds on some seats at a glance like Van Drew, nobody likes a flip flopper even if it is vs a kennedy or even Eastman, yeah eastman won’t run near biden but biden is a big favorite to win that district and that 1 EV.
Why?
https://twitter.com/TheActivatedPod/status/1315326664868388866?s=20
https://twitter.com/TheActivatedPod/status/1315326758313369602?s=20
https://twitter.com/TheActivatedPod/status/1315332428760670209?s=20
From the way @skydiver8 has described that area of CA, this might gain him votes. But also, yea wtf is up with that? Hopefully skydiver will shed some light and explain that this is bullshit somehow.