It’s a relatively new thing for Dems to put national ads on MSNBC to help with fundraising.
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So this is going to sound really crazy, but I talked to a guy tonight who is obscenely wealthy and connected among the obscenely wealthy. He’s very liberal and seems quite intelligent. He follows politics but not like degen junkies like us.
He told me he knows a lot of smart/rich people on Wall Street betting on Democrats sweeping huge, like 60 seats in the Senate huge.
Like they’re investing accordingly.
I can think of four scenarios.
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They’re stupid.
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They’re basically being laid huge odds.
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He misunderstood and they’re betting on Dems getting enough seats to nuke the filibuster.
There’s a path that includes all states we’re either polling close in or have held in the last 12 years, but it’s obviously a massive lift. I think it’s more likely #3.
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I mean I would love to see tubby get beat but I’d have to be getting like, what 200:1 to bet on 60 seats?
I feel like they have to prefer dems to the insanity of a Trump second term given his recent behaviour.
I tried to get there. This map is insane enough. I guess #60 would be Mississippi. I just don’t see any way this happens.
Yeah 56-57 is the realistic landslide territory. Even 54-55 would represent a huge wave.
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The things is, a lot of first time voters voted for Trump in 2016 and are now likely voters. There will be more racists that jump in this time around, but that number pales in comparison to the first time voters that will vote against Trump in 2020 that aren’t considered likely voters in the polls. I am hopeful of this, but there are a lot of voter suppression efforts and outright fraud in a few states. If Trump dies shortly before the election then I think turnout is way down, but it will be more down for Republicans and you could get a super landslide.
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I think the scenario that you’re missing is that there are so many smart/rich people on Wall St that at any point in time you can find lots of them betting on opposing sides of any uncertain outcome.
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Just to get to the 59 pictured you need to sweep Alabama, Georgia x2, Alaska, Texas, Montana, and Kansas. To get to 60, you need to not miss on a single one of those races and then find a seat in one of the deepest red states that aren’t even considered in play in a Biden landslide to pick off your last seat.
Random hedge fund guy does not have more information than Cook Report / Nate Silver. Sorry. Lots of mega rich people out there, but being good at one thing doesn’t make your random opinion better on another thing, especially when very smart people devoting their lives to the other thing both disagree and have more information.
Stop implicitly worshipping rich people.
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Like if you told me I can get a risk free $1 million if I can exactly predict the Senate balance of power after the election, I think I’m going 53-47 Dems at this point. Which is still a great win if we get there.
What do you see turning? I got 51-49 at best assuming Iowa.
I think there’s enough momentum that we win some combo of SC, MT, AK, KS, but I don’t think they’re necessarily 100% correlated.
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https://twitter.com/charlesbethea/status/1314572637721554944?s=21
Stupidity on top of stupidity. The best people.
We had SD not that long ago, but I expect to lose AL.
I agree 56-57 is more realistic for a best case.
I’m not, but thought it was interesting to share. Like they certainly have access to inside info from high level operatives on both sides. One person there was on the phone with America’s worst mother of a teenage TikTokker earlier this year.
It’s possible GOP operatives are panicking. But it’s also possibly they’re trying to drum up donations with fear mongering.
Imagine if Trump, convinced the only way he wins is this bill, starts attacking Senate Republicans by name
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This is significantly more likely to happen than not. Everything Donald touches dies and the GOP has been in bed with him for over four years. Everyone gets into bed with Donald thinking that they’ll be the one to fuck him out of some of that sweet sweet money he inherited, and some do, but most pay a terrible price for it. He drains the life out of people. The longer your relationship with Donald Trump the more certain it is that you’ll be getting fucked. He might get fucked too, because his entire life is one goddamn disaster after another, but you definitely won’t be getting any of your time or money back. (Perfect example: Melania)
Expect him to burn the party down around him if they don’t give him what he thinks he needs to get out of this mess. This rat will absolutely gnaw his own leg off to get out of a trap today only to bleed to death ten minutes later. We just watched this play out with COVID. He’s buying space one day at a time and making whatever moves he needs to get to the next day.
The only thing that’s changed is that right this second I don’t think there’s any more space in the world for anyone to give him, and since he’s already bought ALL of it what’s left is insanely expensive.
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Dem House should pass a bill that is just $5k per person = $1.65T, which is a number GOP has previously said they’d go to.
Dare the GOP to stop $20k from going to a family of four.
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