Speaking of that, Biden text assignments open in 3 minutes. Hopefully there will still be some left by the time I can get on my computer today.
1 Like
Iâm going to get my first assignment later in the week. About to do a full sanitization of my house.
1 Like
Eh, donât think itâs fair to include him in that list. Sure, he had two failed presidential bids, but those are primaries. He won 7 senate races plus VP twice. Thereâs no history of him losing to a Republican and then trying to seek a similar or even higher office.
Thatâs fair but the same could be said of Hillary.
can someone explain the georgia special election?
It seems a bunch of people are running, iâm aware of people talking about lieberman screwing us but i thought that was because he was taking votes from the D that would be ahead otherwise but then i see this polling?
https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1311004343047467009?s=20
The special election is a âjungle primaryâ in which anyone can run. There is no primary to narrow it down to a Republican and a Democrat. Thereâs somewhere around 20 people running for the Senate seat.
If one person gets more than 50% of the vote, thatâs it, that person wins. If that doesnât happen - and it wonât - then the top two vote-getters move on to runoff (in January? I forget). Doesnât matter what party they are in.
Thus, the problem with Lieberman and Tarver not dropping out, even though they have no chance, is that they are taking votes away from Warnock, which could prevent him from finishing in the top two. Then weâd have to choose between Loeffler and Collins.
EDIT: That poll above is very favorable to Warnock. Last time I saw a poll, he was tied with Collins behind Loeffler.
EDIT 2: This was the same situation Ossoff was in when he went up against Handel a few years ago for a House seat. He came REALLY close to winning the jungle primary. Got like 48 or 49 percent, but then lost to Handel in the runoff.
Itâs a âjungle primaryâ. Someone would need 50% to win the seat outright (no one will). Then it goes to a runoff in December for the top two vote getters.
Many (most? all?) of the previous polls had Warnock either in 3rd or a very close 2nd, leading to the concern that he would not make a run-off. This is the first one I recall seeing that has him polling that high. Could be people are waking up to the fact that not only is Lieberman a wasted vote, but that it could lead to an R-only runoff.
My wife has actually cross paths with Lieberman in her career. She said he was very nice, but not tech savvy at all.
gotcha, thanks all, makes sense why the poll was throwing me then. Hopefully its a good sign and there wonât be any risk of him not making it at least
Also the runoff system sucks because turnout is always much lower and favors conservatives. Ranked-choice is clearly superior.
Shit, I forgot about that.
Interestingly, I just looked at Ossoffâs results from 2017 and they were surprisingly even from jungle primary to runoff. He got 48.1% in the primary vs. Handelâs 19.8%. Republicans rallied around her, though, and she beat him 51.8% to 48.2% in the runoff.
Also it saves money, with no need to do a second election.
in the primary he beat the prog in the progâs own town she is or was mayor in.
Ossoff isnât a good candidate but the georgia bench is weak to say the least.
Biden is also going to outrun many D senate and house candidates.
If this keeps up Biden may want to consider having Howard Dean on hand to give the victory speech.
âWe won Pennsylvania, and Michigan, and Wisconsin, and Arizona, and North Carolina, and Florida, and Georgia, and Texas, and Alaska, and now weâre going to Washington DC to take back the White House and then weâre going to indict Trump yeeeaaaaaahhhhhhh!!!â
4 Likes
What with voter suppression, I donât see how Biden can actually win in GA unless heâs +5%. It would be a massive shock the Republican establishment if he does win it, almost as serious as flipping TX.
What was Abrams polling at? IIRC she was polling like -1 to -3.
She lost by 1.4% despite rampant suppression. High turnout could offset it.
I recall Abrams being like 25-30% on 538.