2020 Senate + House Races

So, here’s some interesting stuff about Kansas, again from PPP.

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000171-7d10-d92d-a5ff-fd3a416c0000

71% say they are more concerned about their health, 20% about their financial situation when it comes to coronavirus. 76% think it’s more important to uphold the ban on gatherings of ten or more. 14% think it’s more important to allow large church services.

50% think that Bollier, a doctor who switched parties two years ago, would do a good or excellent job handling the pandemic, while only 34% say Kobach would. 44% say Kobach would do a not so good job, only 18% say that about Bollier.

It feels like making people madder about how the Senate is handling COVID-19 will help Democrats retake complete control of Congress.

That poll did ask who people would vote for in the presidential race, PPP just didn’t bother to publish that particular crosstab. They might tell you if you ask nicely, but they definitely know the answer to your question.

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One thing the media never touches on re: GOP voters is they know GOP politicians are full of shit and can’t do the job. They simply don’t care, and enjoy the racism high more than they think they’re harmed by the incompetence. But when it directly impacts their lives in obvious ways, they’ll care.

Trump being nakedly corrupt and obliterating the rule of law of course does a ton of damage to these idiots’ lives, but they don’t immediately feel it and they don’t care. If they start literally dying, they’ll care.

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Interesting note about Montana: Democrats do amazingly well in the State outside of votes for President. Democrats have won 5 of the last 6 Senate elections and are 4 for 4 in Governor elections since 2000.

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Kansas has a democratic governor and the person she beat is in the R senate primary. If Kobach wins that primary all of a sudden that goes from hopeless to very close.

There’s going to be way too much money sent to SC/Kentucky instead of more logical areas (where the dem might only lose by like 9) but not like people are gonna listen to screaming from the hills not to try to beat out mitch or graham.

Georgia is promising but that’s also why they’re opening cities and hoping covid 19 takes care of it for them.

Montana who knows, I thought Bullock would be down about 5, but he’s polled well lately (one has too low of a sample size for me though). Covid 19 perhaps is causing it as he’s been good like basically every dem who is not de blasio and well every R has been awful.

I assume Loeffler gets primaried, at the very least she’s beatable, who the world puts out an ad talking about your own private plane. Well Trump would do that, but it doesn’t work for everyone else. (and this forum hates it whenever some dem has something expensive while R’s just flaunt it in campaign ads)

fwiw, I have Kennedy as a 2-1 fav in that Mass primary, markey is certainly preferred by this forum and he’s the incumbent but it’s a Kennedy in Massachusetts.

Yeah, I mean there’s huge value even in running someone and then leaking some skewed internal polling showing your guy winning, thus trying to lure the GOP into spending money in a state they don’t need to.

Trump/Bullock ballots are not like the others, because Bullock is a huge name in Montana politics. There will probably be a lot of Trump voters who have already voted for Bullock a couple of times.

That’s a great point, unfortunately.

So, you mean like making it sound like Mitch and the entire Senate GOP are only there to to whatever Donald tells them? Mitch the Bitch? I like it.

https://www.axios.com/senate-polling-democrats-montana-north-carolina-500fc49e-53d1-4ee8-9193-a0ddc8cd960a.html

But I just can’t shake the fact that it’s the same ballot and a significant percentage of voters will have to check the Trump box and then 3 seconds later check the box against Daines, the guy Trump says we desperately need for his agenda.

On the other hand, many voters are complete fucking morons, so maybe it shouldn’t surprise me that much.

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A lot of people are non-ideological and don’t vote on policy. They vote Trump because they like him as a person more than his opponent, then turn around and vote for Bullock for the same reason.

Honestly this will may just come down to what our COVID situation looks like come November. Bullock is currently running the show and is largely appreciated for what he’s done so-far.

Ok I am 100% drunk now, but when I wake up tomorrow I hope someone helps me understand why having the Senate is a big deal when this already happened

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Edit I guess the Senate only matters if Biden wins too

Can block judges theoretically, not that Schumer has the balls to do so like Mitch did.

Which Senators would have the balls to do so and can we replace Schumer with any of them as Senate leader?

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Have any of these people voted badly as the deciding vote?

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Don’t believe it for a second, but:

https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1262878294762020865?s=21

Recent polling suggests (IMO) that Colorado and Arizona are likely to flip (Alabama almost certain to go R)

Maine Montana (not much data) and NC are toss ups

Both GA seats may also be in striking distance if things go South for Republicans between now and November

Everyone hates mcsally it’s looking like; lol republicans giving her that seat.

Current polling says GAx 2 are flips (even ossoff… which ugh he’s bland) but I didn’t look into if they weighted those or not then filter accordingly. My guess is still down a point or two. Loeffler’s stock keeps falling so they won’t have the traditional incumbent advantage there.

There’s a few pollsters out there that are rumored to be fake–simply trying to fleece money on betting markets so gotta be a little careful out there.