Josh Hawley seems nice 
Care to elaborate? Genuinely interested if you got some info on this matter.
I think itās important to note that most of the deaths so far have been in blue states where Trumps approval rating was really really bad already. If the death toll goes up by 300-400% between now and say September (which tbh seems super likely from where Iām sitting) and those deaths happen disproportionately in red states because they are āopen for businessā I strongly suspect that his approval rating will have eroded quite a bit from where we are now.
Thereās another entire scenario thatās awful for him too. Up to now the economic damage has been cushioned a whole lot by government intervention. If Congress locks up and doesnāt pass way way more fiscal stimulus (which seems likely given the situation on the ground in the House/Senate right now) the economic pain will be MUCH worse by election day. That should also greatly erode his numbers.
I live in South Carolina. Anecdotal but most deplorables donāt love Graham. They know he is telling them what they want to hear and remember his early feuds with Trump. Heās pissed off a lot of people without gaining many sincere allies.
As for the general thrust/optimism, basically a lot of our polling on a statewide level shows stuff being super close in a ton of states, with unpopular Republican incumbents. A wave election with high turnout by Dems and/or weaker turnout by Republicans could put a lot of races in play not mentioned above, especially GA (Loeffler) Montana Kansas and Iowa. She lists all those officially as lean R at the moment. NC is a tossup, Maine is a tossup at worst, and Colorado and Arizona are currently looking like they are going to flip. 50/50 seems likely and even 52/48 doesnāt seem insane
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Also not Senate but will piggyback this in that she texted me this morning that analysis suggests that Dems are not only going to retain House but could also pick up seats (Wasserman handles the House though so sheās Just passing that along). House looks like single digit gains or losses for now at most which means currently low chance of losing House
Iām super skeptical about South Carolina. Trump loving deplorables are all voting for Lynzee, his opponent is black. There might be something to massive Democratic turnout, but there will be zero deporable GOP defectors.
For sure. Recent polls aside SC isnāt flipping and hasnāt threatened in a long time. But he feels vulnerable which is a good thing nonetheless
Are people in SC really going to vote Trump/Harrison on the same ballot?
Also ā50/50 seems likelyā? I donāt see it.
Even under the predictions you listed, if CO/AZ/ME flip and AL flips the other way, weāre still only to 49.
Yeah I could see Linzie being primaried at some point but not beaten by a Democrat.
His opponent is raising a shitload of money, more than Lynzee, and polling well for now. But much like Georgia, I just donāt see it.
She hasnāt said odds but my reading of what she has said are that AZ is 4:3 Dem CO is 3:2 Dem Maine 5:4 and NC a coin flip. They all tend to break together however so itās likely if NC flips they all will.
Letās put it this way: I hung out with her right before the pandemic started when she came to SC for the primary and stopped by to visit and see my new son. I asked her if it was reasonable to expect a split Senate in 2020, and she immediately switched to talking about a Dem majority and said that Montana was the state to watch. Things seem overall worse for Republicans since then.
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This question seems very important though:
Adjust to Trump/Bullock in MT or Trump/Bollier in KS for those states.
Lindsey: no. Not in any meaningful way (low single digits maybe, with low single digits also voting third party?). In order for Harrison to win he would need amazing turnout, to almost universally capture moderates, and Trump would probably need to win SC by less than 7 points (he won by 14 in 2016). Even then would be a longshot.
Montana: no first-hand knowledge but based on what I am hearing yes, you might get a significant Trump/Bullock vote.
Kansas: I havenāt kept up specifically but Kobach isnāt well loved so Iād say again that maybe?
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I really wish polls would specifically ask this question.
Like I want to see a 2x2 table of Trump/Bullock, Trump/Daines, Biden/Bullock, Biden/Daines.
If there are any polls with this specific question, let me know because Iād love to see it. (not just for Montana, but for any state where people think there is a prayer of flipping a senate seat)
I actually think that Kobach is much more likely to get elected to Senate. With the governor election, Kansans were all oh wait do we want this lunatic actually running the state every day? Whereas do we want this lunatic in the Senate? Sure, fuck it, whatās the worst that could happen. And theyāre right that one more screwball in the Senate effects them a lot less than a dipshit governor running their actual state every day. And they had direct, recent experience with that sort of dipshit governor. So Iāll bet Kobach is very likely to win the seat.
Kobach probably somewhere between 60 and 75% favorite, yeah. So was Hillary. Just saying that a wave election turnout could flip the current Senate ratio and even a modest, expected election as of right now has a good chance to leave it 50/50
Edit: my friend (off the record, just a low key text ?) says she gives Dems 52% chance to take the Senate based on current info. Take that fwiw
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There are lots of people out there that like the idea that they can vote for people of different parties. It makes them feel good for some reason. But theyāre mostly anti-trump libs, so itās hard to imagine there will be a bunch of trump/d-senator ballots. Lots of biden/r-senator ballots for sure, cause theyāre reasonable people who can disagree with someone while still getting along with them.
I think there could be a decent number of Trump/D-Senator in red states. Lots of Trump supporters are only loyal to him, so wonāt care as much about the Senator. While they will also hate Dās, their hatred seems more focused on Pelosi/Schumer/etc. than their local Ds (especially in Red States where the Dās are actually fairly conservative on many issues).
Sure, Trump will tell them to vote for the R-Senator and hold rallies for them, but 2016 shows that those only do so much.
This data exists. Pollsters just tend not to publish this particular crosstab.
PPP did a mid-March Montana poll. 94% of 2016 Trump voters said that they would vote for Trump in 2020. 96% of 2016 Clinton voters said that they would vote for the Democrat. So, 2016 vote can be used as a proxy for 2020 presidential vote.
Daines is winning 85-10 among Trump voters. Bullock is winning 95-3 among Clinton voters and 61-24 among those who say they did not vote or voted for someone else.
This is close, but I donāt want this:
I want the crosstab of those planning on voting both Trump and Bullock in 2020. Asking about 2016 voting is (imo) quite a bit different than needing to vote in both races at the same time.