Well, often those GOP people run for the down ballot stuff because a) no Democrat could win and/or b) the type of garbage human desperate for an ounce of power is disproportionately Republican.
Power is awesome. For people with actual talent/resources there are ways to get power that are waaay easier and more fun than being a politician. Being/hiring a lobbyist for example. The politicians are the product not the customer. Being a politician is like being a Facebook user lol.
Nah, the Dems shot their load going for the presidency and abandoned local politics. And of course they didnât get the presidency.
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Donât know if Kansas is a lock for Republicans. Looks like Kobach will probably get the nomination and heâs already lost one statewide race to a democrat.
The GOP is running two people who have already been soundly rejected by the voters of their respective states and weâre in here ripping the Democratsâ thin bench?
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The benches are thin on both sides because, again, the actual job of being a politician SUCKS. Itâs way less power than it looks like, the actual day to day grind is brutal, and the hourly isnât even good unless you really dedicate yourself to monetizing in a big way (which is actually surprisingly high risk compared to other types of white collar crime).
Seriously compare the job of âindustry leaderâ, âpowerful lawyerâ, or any other big type A job to being a politician. Itâs just garbage. The only reason to do it other than being a semi untalented high energy psychopath from privilege is a massive sense of public service⌠and even then you could be a teacher/doctor/etc and it would feel way way better.
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You also gotta remember that most of those state rep/senate jobs donât pay a full salary, so you either have to be independently wealthy or have a job where you can take large amounts of time off to do them.
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Something is wrong with copy/paste on my phone so hereâs a screenshot. No idea how reputable this firm is but these numbers are straight up bonkers.
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I mean anyone who thought that it was possible to have an economy this bad + mishandle a huge crisis and then win electorally⌠Youâre probably being way too optimistic about how this is going to turn out for the country wrt beer virus and way to pessimistic about how durable the GOPâs voters are.
Donât forget that Hoover was president when the Depression started and his party didnât win national elections again until 20 years later⌠and the guy who broke that trend was a war hero and a pretty big RINO.
Given the fact that Millenials and Gen Z are already pretty much finished with the GOP and the one thing Iâm semi certain of is that Mitchâs strategy is going to end with pretty much single party rule⌠although probably not until after he and his donors are dead, which explains why he doesnât care and is knowingly heading that direction.
Those numbers are good but Colorado isnât really a swing state anymore. It has transformed to safe blue over recent elections.
Premature to call this a massacre or blue wave until we are seeing numbers like this in WI, AZ, ME and NC.
I agree with this take⌠at the same time I stand by what I said when the Ukraine story broke (and I never expected to be this right) which is that Donald Trump is a complete fuckwit with no remaining guard rails who is going to do some new insanely stupid scandal on a weekly basis from now until November 2020. Every single one will chip away at the GOP brand a little bit. Theyâve got a core group of truly brainwormed supporters, but even they have a breaking point⌠which we are rapidly approaching.
In Germany the moment when the Nazi party really started to lose the population is when the bombs started falling and they started spending long nights in bomb shelters wondering if they were about to die. That kind of experience has a way of making you start asking the hard questions.
Corona time is a much worse fuck up than even I thought Donald was likely to make before the election in 2020. This is just the beginning. We have six more months on the clock for Donald to fuck things up in spectacular fashion. This thing is only 2 months old in terms of people experiencing actual consequences and look where we are⌠six more months is a lot of fucking up.
By the time this is over the GOP is going to wish that theyâd voted to remove. That was a huge mistake. They made a large bet that he couldnât do all that much damage in the remaining time he had in office and they definitely lost.
Iâm going to live in fear of the competent version of Trump for at least 20 more years.
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I generally agree with this as long as we fade the chance of serious election shenanigans.
Another positive for our side is the chance of Trumpâs ongoing psychological breakdown as we get closer to the election. He seems absolutely terrified both of losing and of what might come after. I donât anticipate him reacting well to August/September/October polls that suggest a real likelihood of losing.
Trump has been doing insanely stupid things for over 3 years and it hasnât mattered. His approval ratings havenât moved; they are still in the low to mid 40s.
I see no evidence that this will be different. The GOP will just blame China and Democrats.
This is definitely the right thing to be afraid of.
The breaking point isnât about anything but personal consequences of his rule for his supporters. Like Hitlerâs supporters had when people started dying.
They wonât view it as âconsequences of his ruleâ. It will be Democratsâ fault or Chinaâs fault or Mexicoâs fault. Facts do not matter.
For some. Definitely not for all. Huddling terrified in a cold bunker in the middle of the night while the bombs fall the amount of comfort you can draw from blaming the Jews is pretty limited.
The hardcore true believers obviously arenât going to come around, but no group of people as large as âpeople who voted for Trump in 2016â is a monolith.
Iâm sure there were lots of Germans in 1946 who still secretly believed in Hitler.
They arenât, but I think the fraction people that are âhardcore true believersâ is larger than what you think it is. Hopefully youâre right.
And I do think Trump is an underdog at this point to win re-election.
But this is about the senate, and the reasonable paths to 50 are very thin.
In the so-called âwave electionâ of 2018, Democrats lost two seats. Yeah, they had to defend more, but incumbents lost in Florida, Indiana and Missouri. With Trumpâs approval rating about the same (or even a bit higher) now that it was then, thinking that places like South Carolina, Texas, Kansas and Kentucky are possibilities for senate flips in a presidential election year does not seem based in reality.
Iâm good friends with the person analyzing Senate trends for Cook political. Based on my convos with her Iâd say a few of these takes are a tad pessimistic
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