I’m shocked, just shocked I tell you, that wheatrich comes in to rain on the parade of the progressive candidate not endorsed by Pelosi winning.
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It matters a lot in the continuing battle for the soul of the party. A big win for the progressive wing of the party.
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Ernst and Grassley is another strong combo
Instead of asking a politician to “clarify” a lie, reporters just need to keep saying, “Prove it.”
(among other things)
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They might actually be the worst in terms of VORS.
It’s only a R+3 state and 3/4 of their House members are Democrats.
The Democrats should be pouring money and energy into Iowa this cycle. Both the electoral votes and the senate seat are winnable.
No, they really shouldn’t.
Iowa is nowhere near a tipping point state. If Biden wins Iowa he’s wafflecrushed.
It’s worth some funds for the Senate seat, sure, but Dems can get there without Iowa and it seems the least likely to flip among the toss ups. Would rather the money go to NC.
This is actually a pretty good example of how local optimization can lead to wrong conclusions. Like if you try to optimize the number of expected EC votes by allocating funds between just Iowa and NC you might lower the probability of winning the election overall.
I would not send EC funds to NC, either, probably wasn’t being clear in my post.
Trump’s likely going to win Iowa by between 5-10 points. I have a hard time believing Ernst’s competitor can convince that 5-10% to vote Dem for the Senate.
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For each dollar the Dems spend in a long shot state like Iowa how many dollars do the Reps have to spend to counter their advertising?
I have this theory that campaigns can be fought as a war of attrition where it makes sense to spend x$ on races that are not winnable if it causes/forces the opposing party to spend more than $x for that race.
Every dollar that the Reps spend in Iowa or NC isn‘t spent in WI or MI.
Spending now in unwinnable states still might help for future elections, so they shouldn’t spend big in the Dakotas, but spending a little may help a lot down the road
Obama won Iowa handily twice, and the 2018 House elections went to the Democrats by 4 points if you combine all 4 districts. I don’t think it’s nearly as off the table as you think it is.
Also there’s this. Chuck Grassley is going to be almost 90 in 2022 and his senate seat will be up.
It is absolutely worth major resources to try to beat Joni Ernst. That race is a toss up right now.
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Iowa is absolutely in play and I feel like Ernst is going to get got
Agree with this, spending at least a little time and money to let people know you’re there and listening to them lays down a marker that can pay huge dividends. No one wants to feel like they’re ignored.
Iowa is more winnable than Ohio, both in this election and long term. Most of the state is trending towards blue except the awfulness of deep red that is NW Iowa.
I have a hard time thinking of a worse pairing outside of Cocaine/Rand than Medicare Fraud/Little Marco, but I’m probably a bit biased.
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Apparently no one learned the lesson from the last election when Hillary spent tons of time and money in Iowa/Ohio/etc. and no time in Wisconsin/Pennsylvania/Michigan.
Iowa has approximately 0% relevance to whether or not Biden wins.
GJGE.
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