The above never happened and is completely made up by you.
No one is arguing there are no swing voters. How did you arrive at that?
Cool. it should be obvious that centrists will be better candidates in most states and the actual data supports that. It didnât seem like you understood that from your posts. Granted your posts are heavy on trolling, low on info Iâm not sure this is even a good faith discussion anymore.
lol at the lack of self awareness.
Bill Nelson ran against Rick Scott. A sitting governor who was term limited with a >50% approval rating and infinite personal money . Nelson would have crushed Desantis. You chill out. If he wants to troll he can take being called out for it.
Nelson wouldnât have crushed anybody. Rick Scott was a tougher opponent than DeSantis, but Nelson was an incumbent, so he had an advantage Gillum did not. Also, Gillum was under a garbage FBI investigation, which even centrist Dems like Hillary Clinton get damaged by.
I am on your general side of the argument that, all other things equal, a centrist outperforms a progressive in a red or purple state, but Florida in 2018 is not useful to that argument.
Also, I agree with goofy that you should chill out on lawnmower man, who is not being a troll.
Nelson had no incumbent advantage per 538âs model because of Scottâs position as governor. Sorry, Lawnmower was trolling⌠I mean a conversation between moderates and dems about leopards is clearly meant to troll. Just because nobody was dumb enough to engage on it doesnât mean it wasnât trolling. I mean it should be fine to mildly call out a guy totally wrong on the facts, posting in that manner. Maybe heâll even get better
But youâre having it both ways here. You want to say Bill Nelson is a better candidate than Gillum because he had the same margin but against a popular incumbent governor, but you also want to say his own incumbency doesnât count as an advantage over Gillum.
Bill Nelson vs Rick Scott was a contest of two fairly well liked incumbents.
Andrew Gillum vs Ron DeSantis was a contest of two newbies to statewide politics.
That both elections ended up with approximately the same margins should not lead you to the conclusion that one Democrat was better than the other.
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Matt Jones, the KY sports radio guy, is pretty sure that the way you win Kentucky is to run an outsider, because thatâs how kentuckians think of themselves. Which means running McGrath would be a huge mistake. But itâs still possible she could win, because Mitch is incredibly unpopular, but that would just mean there were other candidates that wouldâve won by more.
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Mitch McConnell is the most insider person on earth and always has been, and he has done pretty damn well for himself in KY. How does this theory hold up at all?
Because the KY dems somehow always run someone whoâs even more of an insider than he is lol
Iâm not saying Nelson> Gillum as a candidate. I donât know either way. Iâm just saying you canât compare Nelsonâs margin of loss vs Gillumâs like that goofy guy was doing without mentioning, âoh, by the way Nelsonâs opponent happened to be the most well known, best funded statewide candidate in the midtermsâ.
People like McConnell win in a 2 step process without being all that well liked or popular. They win the primary because no opponent has any name recognition. Then they win in the general bc the state is R+20.
Itâs not fair⌠I mean newbie vs Trumpy newbie in a D+7 anti-Trump wave election is much better than incumbent vs gov who was on local TV constantly just a month before for largely successful hurricane recovery.
But you guys are the ones trying to compare them. I only pointed out Gillum as someone who lost in a winnable race. Nobody had ever denied that centrists also lost winnable races that cycle. They just won more competitive races than they lost, which wasnât true for progressives.
If people lose the primary because of lack of name recognition, that goes to my speculation that outsider candidates would not be especially beloved in KY. Like, where is the evidence for this outsider theory? I think thatâs a common platitude, nobodyâs gonna say âmy state loves insiders and the establishment,â but lots of states do vote that way.
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I donât know specifically about KY and outsiders. I was just explaining how Mitch (and others) can keep winning even if itâs true. They might not like insiders, but itâs still hard for someone 95%+ of the state hasnât heard of to beat him. Like if you could just vote âNoâ on McConnell proposition style he might be voted out in a 80% landslide. But the actual system we have lets people like that coast to reelection many times over.
This is extremely important.
The fact that centrists did well in swing districts in 2018 is a point AGAINST McGrath, not for her.
She ran in 2018 in an R+9 district. She lost. Iâm all for centrists in red states if they actually show that they can win (people like Manchin and Tester). The fact that she came up short in a wave election is a sign that she sucks.
If she wants to disprove this, why not run again for the house seat there? If she canât win this time in that district, thereâs no way she can win statewide where four of the other districts are R+18, R+19, R+23, R+31.
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How much credit should she get for getting 48% in a district where the last two Dems got 40% and 39%? She showed more improvement over previous candidates than other Democrats in Kentuckyâs other districts.
I donât know if sheâs a good candidate, but even a good candidate probably isnât winning. If Republicans take her more seriously than a more progressive candidate, does she induce them to spend more resources defending what should be a safe seat?
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The sample was only small for progressivesâŚthatâs a lesson in and of itself. MJ Hegar is not even the D nominee yet fwiw. But I donât fault you for not knowing that, since the candidate the progressives put up failed to even make it to the run off, itâs not getting much attention, even locally.
And lol at Beto being a progressive. He was to the right of your average Dem in the house. Did you forget all the attacks from the Sanders people during the primary?
https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/beto_orourke/412575
Lol some quest. If you canât take the mildest criticism like that perhaps donât dish it out by calling people dicks?
Itâa hard to see your style critiques as anything but a rhetorical device when youâve given up on the subject matter entirely. But GL to you.