it’s so infuriating when these dipshit politicians say “oh I haven’t seen that tweet” and the reporters just let them walk off, like you’re a fucking sitting senator, if you’re not aware of the nutbag shit the president is tweeting, in a just world you would be instantly thrown in jail for dereliction of duty, the least you could do is not insult every fucking human being by pretending “you’re not aware”
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Gideon only up 2 in latest. Telling you guys don’t assume Collins is going to lose.
https://twitter.com/cookpolitical/status/1321792521249431556?s=21
Mississippi making a late push. That’s why they were all pushing it yesterday
Get wrecked Joni you muppet ass
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Ossoff is really good at this. I’m picking up flashes of Obama in his oration style and cadence.
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So, he is like a straight Buttigieg?
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What would we think about doing an UP survey of which swing states we think will go for Trump Biden and which senate seats we expect to flip?
Hopefully Trump loses in a landslide if only so that Jeb decides he needs to run in 2024 to take back the party. We need more Jeb memes
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The next decade is guaranteed to be packed with Democrats copying the Obama oratory style.
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Long story from Jess. Dunno if any of you subscribe to Cook but here’s the takeaways that seem relevant to our discussions:
Maine seems more likely Dem than we have discussed. Ranked choice voting should give a big boost to Gideon because Collins won’t get a majority and the Green Party candidate is literally running ads telling supporters to put Gideon as choice 2. Collins is almost certainly toast.
NC should be a good feeling for Dems. Not much worth getting into here, but it sounds like 2:1 as a toss up.
Iowa we probably have the right ideas on. Far from a sure thing but good feelings.
BOth GA races are favorable to Dem but especially Warnock. Not sure things but good feelings.
Montana has a chance but not feeling great about. Margin of Error, but ACB has helped Daines.
KS same story, is likely hurt by ACB but this could be close. Margin or error race.
Lindsey has made a final push that appears effective aided by ACB. It may be too much for Harrison to overcome and this ends up like 2018 TX.
Michigan is looking closer recently and James is expected to beat Trump by 4 points. He’s raised a ton and run a good campaign. We need Trump to not overperform polls in MI or this has a chance to lose.
TX, KY aren’t happening.
AK seems unlikely but Alaska is weird and hard to poll so it’s not impossible.
Tl;dr: a Dem majority seems likely a small cushion probable but chances of a tsunami where they take 55+ seem to have faded
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Texas off the table, but Kansas is possible? That doesn’t seem like it lines up with recent polls.
What about Minnesota? I posted that A rated Survey USA poll with Tina Smith ahead by only 3 with like 15% uncommitted.
Honestly she doesn’t mention it and it’s rated safe. Not too worried probably an outlier poll.
Any chance you can drag her here?
Even for just a quick AMA?
She said in KS that the GOP is ultimately expected to drag Marshall across the finish line.
In TX Hegar is polling several points behind Biden and Biden is competitive but not expected to win handily by any means.
Keep in mind that Cook looks at a ton of unreleased internal polling and talks to the people running the polls to understand what sense they’re getting
Pretty sure she does this stuff for a living dude, kinda seems crazy to ask her to come here for an AMA.
Probably not. Definitely no chance before the election. She’s busy as hell
I think you’re misreading my intentions. I think it would be genuinely interesting.
Yeah, I certainly wasn’t asking for before or immediately after the election. These past 2 months or so must have been absolute insanity.
But if there’s a ever “dull period” in that industry, I think a lot of people here would be interested.
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