Because we’re closer to the election so less time for polls to tighten more.
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https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320764104131416069
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320763490320240643
Immensely frustrating how little money and attention the Texas race (THAT WAS FUCKING WINNABLE) got compared to the SC and AL races.
And Georgia for that matter. Based on recent polling certainly seems like Dems have a better chance of picking up Texas than going to a runoff in either Georgia race and automatically losing.
beto also kinda screwed texan dems this time.
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Agree on SC and AL - although get why people wanted to donate to an incumbent and to beat Lindsay. Disagree on GA, both of those are winnable, even in the runoff.
The true waste was any money spent in KY.
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The model baked in tightening.
It is hard for me to get too worked up about the TX Senate seat. Cornyn was never going to do worse than Trump and even with everything breaking very well for Democrats Trump is still a heavy favorite to win the state. Beto didn’t even come close against Cruz, a much worse and more disliked candidate.
Agreed. GA was much closer in 2018 than Texas was. Add in that Cruz is a worse candidate than Cornyn; Loeffler is a terrible candidate/weak incumbent; and Texas is a bigger state so costs more, and I don’t see why going in D’s should have prioritized Texas over Georgia.
Tommy Tuberville is going to be a United States Senator. What the fuck.
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You gotta start somewhere.
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Does it feel like Dems are giving Kansas more attention than is warranted? It’s possible that the party establishment is biased towards being a bit more excited when a (white) woman is challenge a Republican incumbent.
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@DougJones GJGE having a voting record to the right of Susan Collins so that you can have a shot at reelection.
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Does he? The big ones I remember are no on Kav and yes on impeachment.
DW-NOMINATE has Jones to the left of Manchin, who is to the left of Collins. Progressive Punch has Jones to the left of Sinema, who is to the left of Collins. All Democrats are to the left of the most moderate Republican.
Manchin/Jones/Sinema are pretty close to each other and as a group they are closer to the next left-most members of the Democratic caucus (Angus King, Tom Carper, Mark Warner, etc.) than they are to Collins.
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I was going by this:
for whatever that is worth.
I looked at his actual votes and overall they don’t look too bad. He voted for Bill Barr, Gina Haspel, and Mike Pompeo for example but the rest is okay I guess. I might have projected some of my Manchin hate on him.
Doug Jones voted against Haspel.
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You are right. Thanks for the correction.
I think the other thing, according to Nate, is that while the GE race appears to be tightening slightly, the state polls are finally starting to move a little bit closer to the GE numbers, and the model uses the state polls.