2020 Senate + House Races

Republicans are going to win both Georgia seats. Neither Warnock nor Ossoff is going to get 50% of the vote and they’ll both lose runoffs. Democrat voters are notorious for not showing up for runoff elections.

In positive news, my district is poised to re-elect a Democrat in a GOP gerrymandered district.

https://twitter.com/jslovegrove/status/1315982546858053632?s=21

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A couple dialysis companies are spending $86M on non-stop ads to tell us that dialysis companies will go out of business if prop 23 passes.

https://voterguide.sos.ca.gov/propositions/23/

Requires physician, nurse practitioner or physician assistant on site during dialysis treatment. Prohibits clinics from reducing services without state approval. Prohibits clinics from refusing to treat patients based on payment source. Fiscal Impact: Increased state and local government costs likely in the low tens of millions of dollars annually.

Yeah, put “likeable” in quotes because what’s going on is similar to what you see with dating and society generally. Women have a tougher time with aging due to the emphasis placed on their looks (and unlike men, they don’t get offsetting bonus points for accumulating power), and it translates to politics.

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Warren was the favorite candidate of this site for a good chunk of the primary process and has very high favorable ratings among Democrats so there is some selective memory going on there.

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Go here, search Liz and Warren. Enjoy.

JFC you aren’t seriously this stupid are you? Warren is absolutely liked by a majority of Democrats which was your original statement.

Maybe Warren was more liked outside of unstuck than I thought. My point still stands about here. Also calm down.

Everyone here liked Warren (prob split evenly btw her and Bernie) until she abandoned M4A, then she lost all support.

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I still like Warren.

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This is also coincidentally the moment when she went from being the front runner in the primary to not even belonging in the conversation.

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As predicted by some of us here the moment she shifted.

I think its a pretty clear case of: most people like Warren somewhat or a lot, but a smaller number of people with unresolved issues with women really hate her and are really vocal about it. The haters are probably sticking out more in our collective memory.

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2022 has the potential to be such a great slate for a Dem mid-term. No real tough seats to defend while Republicans have to defend WI, IA, OH, PA, NC, FL and to lesser extent SC, KS, and AK.

Maybe. Assuming Biden wins, I think by 2022 there will likely be some baked in pendulum swinging back the other way. It seems inevitable that low info voters will have an attitude of “Golly Dems have been in power for 2 years and some things still suck! Boo Dems!”

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Re: Warren, people love/loved her lecturing banks/Wall Street because there is near unanimous agreement they deserve it. That’s a very, very potent political tool but the rest of her political skills/instincts are no good, which is why she crashed and burned.

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I think this is probably correct. Elizabeth Warren is an incredibly talented person who is a leader in her field. Unfortunately her field is bankruptcy law not politics and it shows. I’m really happy our side has a big name in bankruptcy law in the senate. Not sure making a big name in academia the POTUS is a great idea. I think it’s in the West Wing for a reason. It’s appealing to us, but anti intellectualism is a powerful thing in this country and she’s nothing if not a loud public intellectual.

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Is the Texas state legislature more in play than the Presidency/Senate races? If so, is that because it’s the one state where the R 2010 gerrymandering has actually backfired (rather than merely being weakened)?

I think the map is strong enough in 2022 to overcome this. Similar to Republicans gaining seats in a blue wave election in 2018. That plus continuing demographic change and hopefully Dems do something to make voting more accessible in the first two years of a Biden presidency.

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This is part of the LOL fuck you approach and maybe the most effective part. Republicans know that when nothing gets done, people tend to blame the president. As a result, wholesale blocking of everything under a Dem POTUS tends to benefit the GOP.

Democrats have a conscience and try to play nice, especially on issues of national importance. This asymmetrical warfare means Republican presidents get more done than Democrats.

The right response is to go nuclear when we have power.

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