As the blue bus driver of GA this election here, you are incorrect on the state.
I don’t know if we’ll get it in 2024 though and damn those senate races are gonna be hard to win runoffs but long term prospects R’s are in big trouble there.
100%. Worst possible result that wasn’t a Trump victory.
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Because it’s an outliar result. Like Obama winning Indiana in '08. Applying your logic to that would suggest that IN would have become swingy after that. Indianapolis, Bloomington, and NW Indiana (near Chicago) are liberal and are/were growing. Sounds like a recipe for a future swing state at least.
And we can see that didn’t turn out. Indiana is less of a sweat than TX these days and no one in their right mind considers it even close to being a swing state.
Rest of this decade is gonna be a slog that’s for sure, dems probably go back to fighting each other instead of figuring out they need to both stop doing that immediately but neither aoc or some moderate district dems seem capable of shutting the hell up.
Georgia isn’t remotely close to Indiana (edit–take that back, it is in urban/rural, but I’ll prove the point wrong soon hang on)
Georgia is only 57% white, Indiana is 88%. That’s a MASSIVE difference. yes, as I thought, GA demographically is very similar to Illinois.
OK. So let imagine it’s 2008 and Obama turns Indiana blue. Someone posts well Obama just won and the major metros in Indiana are growing. Seems like a good recipe for a swing state. Why would they have been wrong?
I half feel this way and half feel beating an incumbent is tough under any circumstances. Trump also cartoonishly abused his power to help himself get re-elected… and he did it because that shit works, no persuadable voter cares about “but our norms.”
Just off the top of my head, campaign parties on the White House lawns that looked awesome, a trillion Hatch Act violations, signing his names on $1200 checks of free money to everybody.
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I edited it back in the post, GA is Illinois demographically with Indiana’s urban/rural divide. Indiana is closer demographically to one of the dakotas.
Georgia has also never been a remotely close race. Last elections
2016 R+5
2012 R+8
2008 R+7
This result is a huge outliar.
abrams barely lost in 2018
Correct! She is the anomaly. She almost won that and in large part is the reason why Biden pulled it this time. I don’t see her devoting her full attention to GA forever.
Yeah I mean the way I said that implied they were close outcomes. It’s more like
Trump win
MASSIVE GAP
Biden win, Senate still republican, Trump fucking off and potentially not going scorched earth on republicans on the way out
Again if a miracle can be pulled in Georgia then I will be way more optimistic.
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Yeah this was the point of the recent WAPO article posted in the other thread.
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Ohio and Florida used to be close and both are gone now, shit changes. If you are right well you’ll make a lot of money in 2024. (I’m not sure either way yet then)
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Lol dude, Stacey is not going to step away from her life’s work without at least making sure it’s in good hands. She doesn’t have magic powers, she came up with a process that can be repeated now that the playbook is in place.
Maybe OH, but too early to pronounce FL.
Recent elections
2020 R+4
2016 R+ 1
2012 D+1
2008 D+7
2004 R+5
2000 Tie
Saying GA is better long term for Dems than FL seems like an overreaction to this week.
I’d like for you to be right. But that’s more a hope than a certainty.
I plan to pound Republican candidate wins GA in 2024 if I can find something better than predicit to bet on. You can’t pound anything on predictit.
FL is winnable if we can get the Cubans and Venezuelans back, that is a possible but volatile bet. Heavily dependent on foreign policy events and how they are perceived.
GA is just black voters and college educated voters keep voting D at the same rate…
You gotta remember Chris is in Australia where it’s in fact already two weeks from now.
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