2020 Post-Election Thread

Well, Biden is President-Elect. But what the hell just happened?

Suggested topics for discussion:

  • The fiction of “Latinos” as a voting block and what it means for the Democratic coalition. “The country is getting browner” rings pretty hollow now.

  • The fragility of winning the Electoral College without Texas or Florida. Texas seems as far away as ever and the Dems got crushed in Florida in an election where the candidate was supposed to appeal to seniors.

  • Why did polls miss badly in the same direction in places like Wisconsin two elections in a row? Is what Matt Christman says true, the polls are cucked because only cucks answer polls? Who the fuck even answers their phone anymore to numbers they don’t recognise? Trafalgar Group are frauds, but do their criticisms have merit?

  • What should the Dem coalition look like in the future and how does the party get there?

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First

Let’s enjoy Trump losing for a day then answer the questions.

All I know is that this iteration of the Democratic Party is only staying in power for 4 years if it doesn’t change

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This.

I’ll be active in a thread like this when this year’s election is actually over.

Which, imo, is not until the Georgia runoffs in January.

I’m on board with let’s enjoy Trump losing for a day but I don’t think the question of what went right/wrong this election and where the Dems go from here materially changes no matter what happens in Georgia.

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I’ll read this thread in two weeks

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As reluctant as I am to cite someone named “Chaz Nuttycombe”, I haven’t seen any other state-level analysis done so far. <votes are still being counted, etc…>

Nonetheless, losing 69 state legislature seats is not nice.

Good & interesting questions that I think will take some time to unpack, but re: this:

I think this is something that feels strong to us because it’s the reality we sweat over every election, but like, it’s kinda the same for the other side too. Like, here’s kinda the starting map you’re talking about, being generous and granting Florida perma-deplorable status like Ohio:

This is a competitive and fragile map for both sides, and Republicans must feel especially so when lean blue states alone (blue wall incl. MN + NV or NH) get you to 270. Colorado and Virginia becoming lock blue is a pretty recent trend that I think would give Republicans a lot more existential dread if not for them having luckboxed 2016 which gave them a sense of security for a bit longer.

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I think this election has no predictive value at all.

  1. Covid open for business vs lockdowns and masks.
  2. Supreme court packing talk right when people started voting.
  3. Compromised campaigns because of covid.
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If people don’t want doom and gloom right now fair enough, bookmark the thread and come back in a week. Personally I did my fistpumping like 24 hours ago and this was a formality, but seems like it hasn’t worked that way for most.

This is true except that Biden was supposed to be a candidate grown in a lab to appeal to Blue Wall type voters and WI/MI/PA were all still too close for comfort. Like I don’t see what about this election leads one to the conclusion that this is the Blue Wall reasserting itself as opposed to all of those states just being swing states. The trajectory of Dems remains towards being the party of college-educated Americans and I’m not sure what the case is for optimism regarding the Blue Wall getting stronger rather than weaker. That said, perhaps this is offset by what look like Dem trends in places like AZ, GA and NC.

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Yeah, this is very true, we don’t know if this is a brief regression back to the mean in a long-term trend of these states going red, or if it’s the end of a brief flirtation with Trumpism and they’ll stay lean blue in the future if the GOP goes back to nominating Romney-esque clowns instead of populists. I’m just kinda saying, like, yeah it’s fragile for us but it’s fragile for them too.

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You might be right, but gimme the weekend at least.

I’m very pessimistic about the long-term political future of this country but am completely unwilling to discuss or even acknowledge that right now.

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A couple of bones to pick with this map

MN should be solid blue
GA should be solid red – Biden winning is a major anomaly. The stars perfectly aligned to get it. I think in a normal year, GA is essentially unwinnable. It’s like Obama winning Indiana in '08. Sometimes weird shit happens.

The truth of 2020 is that it was very close to 2016, with what we found out from there just accelerating. The big divide is rural vs cities. Biden was enough of a known quantity to improve on Hillarys margins and hold the firewall.

Long term its going to be tough to win the rural voters as long as they’re mainlining OAN/Fox/fb groups.
The GOP will have the reverse problem as long as they’re just appealing to those who are daily in step with the alternate universe of OAN/Fox/trumps twitter.

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2024 map applied to 2020 results nets republicans a further 5 electors. Map is interactive if anyone wants a look, just thought I’d share although most are probably aware of the census changes.

Nope, unless the parties change course, GA is going to go the way of Virginia over time because of Atlanta and it’s suburbs.

And Rs have no incentive to change course because their strengths with non-educated and rural voters massively benefit them in the Senate and state legislators. Maybe in the House of Representatives too if they are able to regerrymander it this year, but haven’t really looked into that yet.

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If there was a practical way to do it, I’d bet Dem doesn’t win GA again at least until 2036. Around the time Texas gets competitive.

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