Well, Biden is President-Elect. But what the hell just happened?
Suggested topics for discussion:
The fiction of “Latinos” as a voting block and what it means for the Democratic coalition. “The country is getting browner” rings pretty hollow now.
The fragility of winning the Electoral College without Texas or Florida. Texas seems as far away as ever and the Dems got crushed in Florida in an election where the candidate was supposed to appeal to seniors.
Why did polls miss badly in the same direction in places like Wisconsin two elections in a row? Is what Matt Christman says true, the polls are cucked because only cucks answer polls? Who the fuck even answers their phone anymore to numbers they don’t recognise? Trafalgar Group are frauds, but do their criticisms have merit?
What should the Dem coalition look like in the future and how does the party get there?
I’m on board with let’s enjoy Trump losing for a day but I don’t think the question of what went right/wrong this election and where the Dems go from here materially changes no matter what happens in Georgia.
As reluctant as I am to cite someone named “Chaz Nuttycombe”, I haven’t seen any other state-level analysis done so far. <votes are still being counted, etc…>
Nonetheless, losing 69 state legislature seats is not nice.
If people don’t want doom and gloom right now fair enough, bookmark the thread and come back in a week. Personally I did my fistpumping like 24 hours ago and this was a formality, but seems like it hasn’t worked that way for most.
This is true except that Biden was supposed to be a candidate grown in a lab to appeal to Blue Wall type voters and WI/MI/PA were all still too close for comfort. Like I don’t see what about this election leads one to the conclusion that this is the Blue Wall reasserting itself as opposed to all of those states just being swing states. The trajectory of Dems remains towards being the party of college-educated Americans and I’m not sure what the case is for optimism regarding the Blue Wall getting stronger rather than weaker. That said, perhaps this is offset by what look like Dem trends in places like AZ, GA and NC.
MN should be solid blue
GA should be solid red – Biden winning is a major anomaly. The stars perfectly aligned to get it. I think in a normal year, GA is essentially unwinnable. It’s like Obama winning Indiana in '08. Sometimes weird shit happens.
The truth of 2020 is that it was very close to 2016, with what we found out from there just accelerating. The big divide is rural vs cities. Biden was enough of a known quantity to improve on Hillarys margins and hold the firewall.
Long term its going to be tough to win the rural voters as long as they’re mainlining OAN/Fox/fb groups.
The GOP will have the reverse problem as long as they’re just appealing to those who are daily in step with the alternate universe of OAN/Fox/trumps twitter.
2024 map applied to 2020 results nets republicans a further 5 electors. Map is interactive if anyone wants a look, just thought I’d share although most are probably aware of the census changes.
Nope, unless the parties change course, GA is going to go the way of Virginia over time because of Atlanta and it’s suburbs.
And Rs have no incentive to change course because their strengths with non-educated and rural voters massively benefit them in the Senate and state legislators. Maybe in the House of Representatives too if they are able to regerrymander it this year, but haven’t really looked into that yet.
Yeah, this election was a disaster at almost every level. Dems just barely got a win against the worst incumbent in US history. A bungled pandemic response, mass unemployment, an opponent who’s just cartoonishly lying nonstop didn’t matter. Republicans increased their turnout and increased their turnout with blacks and Hispanics. Absolutely nothing on the ground matters because half of the voters in the US are caught up in the Fox News / Facebook brainwashing system that will only get larger and more powerful over the next four years.
We’re not winning 2024 if Republicans find another celebrity idiot to run. There isn’t going to be a pandemic, everyone will be tired of the Democrats’ brand of mushy center-right corporate politics. We’re a nation of irredeemable morons programmed to believe anything Sean Hannity tells us.
Oh, and we’re still drawing live to Trump refusing to leave office and no one doing anything to stop him.
