I’m not sure if the establishment will want to circle the wagons with Bloomberg, a recent former Republican who’s a pretty terrible candidate (start with stop and frisk and go from there). I don’t think they’ll want to give in until it’s a mathematical certainty that Bernie has enough delegates to win… So I don’t think it’s a given that Pete drops if Bloomberg is in better shape going into or right after ST.
I think it has to be a clear win AND Pete and Klob have to be near even. If either is far ahead of 3rd place, no matter how far ahead Bernie is in first place, the media will jizz themselves about MOMENTUM and ignore Bernie (not that they need an excuse to do that).
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A loss would be trouble but it seems like to me that now Bernie is going to be the one with the huge advantage in the southern states with Biden tanking. Do we really think Pete (who polls in low single digits with POC) or Mini Mike (who has some pretty damning racist videos) have any real chance of carrying this demo that is key to the nomination?
So basically it would be bad if he loses but far from the death blow to his campaign.
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Given how much Biden has faltered, any decisive win (>3-5%) would be fine. Before Biden imploded I would have thought Bernie needed to win NH by 10%+. It’s very hard to imagine Bernie losing NV since he polls better than Biden+Pete+Warren combined with Hispanics, even if he narrowly wins NH or narrowly loses NH. That being said, losing NH decisively to Pete (>3%) would introduce complete chaos heading into NV and could give an opening there for Pete.
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Biden is going to hang around for awhile and will probably rack up a number of 2nd place finishes. But Bloomberg will eat into his vote totals. Warren does appear to be done if she continues 3rd and below. Her funding will dry up.
Nobody likes Bloomberg. As soon as the public gets the chance to see and hear him his numbers will tank, as he’s a revolting dude. His only chance is if he finishes third or fourth and gets chosen via shenanigans, imo
I think you are right that Pete will likely be the last standing establishment candidate. I guess my question is what states can he win? After this state he has very large deficits to overcome basically everywhere. He can’t be the nominee finishing 2nd or 3rd in every state.
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I saw one demo breakdown that Bernie winning the moderate Democratic vote, probably because he’s an old white guy. conservative vs very liberal breaks down along various axises
why are they releasing all of these exit poll results with questions no one cares about and not who people voted for? do networks not release that kind of stuff early because of fallout from 2000 election?
Are you sure? LOL mostly kidding…
But I guess my real answer is just that if he does well, and everyone else drops out, he can conceivably start winning states. I don’t really know which ones, but if it’s head-to-head I don’t see Bernie getting a clean sweep.
That’s correct, yes.
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I mean Hill and Trump together spent something like 1.8 billion last election, which more than Tom Steyer’s net worth. Bloomberg on the other hand is worth 61.5 billion. He can dump an utterly insane amount of money in the race. Bloomberg laughs at Bernie raising 25 mil last month.
He isn’t going to win California, Texas or any of the southern states. Biden imploding might seem good for Pete but it’s actually good for Bernie as Pete has no chance to absorb the black support that Biden was counting on to carry the day for him.
Pete might win a Kansas or Montana or something like that but those states have no delegates. The math gets very very bad for him fast after this.
Also maybe I’m mistaken here but it seems like Pete has pumped all his resources into these two states. It’s hard to see him competing ground game wise going forward.
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Also for early exit polls I assume early voting is dominated by lololds and most bernie supporters are working. I’d guess most would prefer to vote after work instead of missing an hour of pay.
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He’s banking on scoring big donations if he’s a front runner after the early states. Winning some Midwestern states and playing somewhat close and forcing a contested convention could be enough. He’s been planning for a contested convention from the start.
This is also correct.
Hasn’t been one since like 1952.
Has Klob had a stroke before? I never noticed that one of her eyebrows droops so bad.
Make fun of Pete all you want, but come after Pat and I’ll end you 
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