NV pretty much locked for Biden, AZ a tossup
My pony a toss up for the glue factory
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I can assure you many of us do not think this.
Iād post skyline chili but ohio has lost all rights to any cultural heritage
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Perhaps Iām confusing sample size. The real sample size is less than 10 in terms of elections (if we talk recent history). Maybe the 50/50 split is a statistical artifact of this small sample size?
This is true, but one state that might be in danger (and Iām 100% serious) is Vermont.
Before this election, I thought there was no way that a Republican could win an election for national office. But Phil Scott is fucking popular here to an extent that I did not anticipate. He just won re-election by almost a 3 to 1 margin over the challenge from the Lt Governor. He could very easily become the GOPās answer to Joe Manchin.
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Iām biased, but IMO AOC has the ability to cut through years of poison poured in the well, when you just hear her speak. She makes sense, has a compelling personal message, and that message resonates. Hillary was just not as compelling an orator and communicator.
Will it mean that AOC is a nominee or winner for president? Who the heck knows, but I donāt think āFox News has demonized herā will be the gating issue. Plus, she slays all that nonsense through impeccable use of social media anyway.
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I think you are hearing her from your perspective.
She is a far left, woman of colour who is very outspoken. Itās hard to think of someone who will turn off more of the current right.
And I say this as someone who loves her.
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Letās be honest her being hot helps massively with men, although not sure how well it translates to votes.
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In 2012, Dick Lugar was successfully primaried by a Tea Party candidate who lost to Joe Donnelly in Indiana. 2006 saw Claire McCaskell beat Jim Talent in Missouri, Jon Tester beat Conrad Burns in Montana, and Sherrod Brown beat Mike Dewine in Ohio.
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Itās not 50-50. We are gonna win by millions of votes
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That hurts her. Men donāt take good looking women seriously. There is a ton of social science research to this effect.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0749597814000715
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Totally agree with this. Her message is popular. Just not sure she is the right messenger so soon.
I can see her killing in a few cycles just maybe not in 4 or 8 years.
Over a sample size of 140m.
āRepublicans in Disarray!ā
https://twitter.com/DonaldJTrumpJr/status/1324453498897932289?s=20
https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1324692671869366272?s=20
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There will be plenty of time for all the 2020 analysis, but I do think people should resist the urge to accept appealing, simple explanations for why Democrats arenāt just crushing coast to coast.
The structure of our system means that Dems must consistently win like 55% of the electorate over several election cycles. I know Dem policies poll popularly but there is no getting around the effectiveness of the propaganda machine, and I think itās legit difficult to maintain their coalition.
To an extent, the argument of ābe more economically populistā is really just another, āwe need to win over Republicansā argument.
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20k drop incoming in 10-15
What Iām getting from the Georgia win is that we need Killer Mike / Stacey Abrams 2024.
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