Because the line is really obvious? Electoral college votes for Biden. Biden gets sworn in by whomever, it doesn’t really matter. Biden turns to his secret service detail and says “I order you to remove that dude.”
The only mechanism to a coup involves the Supreme Court declaring somehow that trump actually wont the election. Given the court record so far, that isn’t happening. None of these federal institutions are siding with Trump without cover from the Supreme Court.
Literally any agency. Nobody is dying on the hill for him without cover from the Supreme Court.
Also this.
I’m sorry but this is just hogwash. Trump has certainly frayed our institutions quite badly. But not this badly.
Also, we picked up an extra seat in the lame duck period because Kelly gets seated right away.
There is one scenario in which T**** gets forced out of the WH and that is if he thinks the optics of that are good. However, he probably realizes that makes him look like a loser. I’m expecting a chopper-speech about how he’ll be back to take back the presidency democrats stole and then some grifting for donations. After that it will be time for
Wouldn’t any manner of abused stimulant create the same effect?
I also think this is not the highest probability risk scenario. I think all the election challenging hogwash is just part of a systematic undermining in confidence in government, and the pre-Trump right has no problem with that. In a way the highly effective Republican playbook since Reagan has been a) establish cultural belief that government in harmful, not helpful; b) obstruct any government action that helps people, with backing from the public that believes the fiction from step a; c) have the government do things that help well connected stakeholders at the expense of everyone else; d) when criticized on c, point back to a and say “of course this government action is bad, we all know government is bad”; e) rinse and repeat in ever escalating cycles.
Casting doubt on election results, on the validity of the Supreme Court, etc., just feed into cycles of step a. So Republicans don’t need to have some master plan to use an illegitimate SC to overturn elections, just the simple fact of deteriorating confidence in public institutions is enough for them.
I have been trained through a career with a lot of focus in risk management to look for unseen threats. That sounds counter intuitive, but it is actually a good technique in risk management to not just track your standard risk metrics but also to ask the question - if we zoom out is there a fact pattern here that resembles another fact pattern where a “shock” risk manifested? IMO people are a little too focused right not on the narrow view of 21st century Presidential politics and who’s going to run in 2024 and what are the mechanics of approving a new President, etc. I would look to the broader fact pattern for clues - what bad things have happened in other situations where you had weakening traditional institutions, an effective and powerful propaganda machine, an underlying fanatic religious element, coordinated around a cult of personality? I would assert that given that fact pattern the more immediate and present risks are domestic terrorism with the potential for coordinated terrorist factions in the manner of ISIL. My best guess for what goes wrong in the next 4 years isn’t “the Republican part steals the Presidency”, it’s “numerous domestic terrorist attacks and the failure of institutions to stop them completely undermine any Biden administration efforts to achieve anything”.
He is a wealthy old dude. My speculation would be that its some form of prescription stimulant, maybe used in doses higher than you’re supposed to. I’m just guessing that if you have a lot of money in the US you get a more dignified prescription high.
Well I hope you’re right about this and it all goes smoothly. But from my perspective, what’s going on is batshit insane, and I don’t get any comfort from the sanctity of institutions, norms, or even laws right now.
People talking about Trump or Biden not running again in 2024 because they will be four years older and declining further don’t really take into account that the 2024 election cycle has already started. There is no off-season and these guys don’t turn into a pumpkin over the next few months or even a year.
It’s so weird seeing widespread reporting Trumps’s team can’t successfully file a lawsuit, don’t understand basic law, everyone is completely incompetent, Trump’s schedule has no events for weeks, all the reporting is he is just watching tv all day and yet somehow he is planning a coup to take over the government.
There is a mismatch here somewhere guys.
In light of stuff like: https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1329490975266398210
I wanted to revisit the idea that the GOP will definitely confirm a Joe Biden SCOTUS nomination if one comes in in 2021-2023. To restate your theory, to not confirm a SCOTUS nomination would represent such a departure from the norms of our politics that the GOP would be rightly punished at the next possible election.
To be clear, I’m not implying that I think this is a silly point of view, and I am not interested in betting on it. If you are willing, I would be interested to hear you expand on why you believe that issue in particular is where the line would be drawn.
You are way underselling things that are actually going on. He’s firing and replacing people with completely unhinged but loyal lunatics. He’s constantly tweeting misinformation and sowing seeds of doubt about the validity of the election, and has some TV and social networks taking up the cause despite no evidence or basis in reality. His party is for the most part remaining silent, despite the massive damage that it’s inflicting on the country. He’s sending people out to actively undermine election results and lobby legislatures to throw out election results. And who knows what else is going on behind closed doors.
Meanwhile, where is the messaging from our side? Why are our sitting elected officials not condemning this? Why are they not going on every talk show and using every platform available to point out that he is absolutely batshit insane and screaming about the danger and the damage that this is doing to the country? Why are they not demanding in unison that he concede?
I don’t think he has some grand plan or anything. But I also don’t think he needs a grand plan in order for something to stick.
I never said the GOP would definitely confirm a Joe Biden nominee. I said they’d have a judiciary committee hearing and have a vote.
Lol, the eDems are going to need at least 7 months of consultant work before they can decide what it is that they believe in and how they should respond. The kind of clear, concise, forceful messaging you are describing only comes from people with actual core beliefs and values. See, for example, AOC’s very clear and direct Twitter messaging on this (and just about anything else, for that matter). eDems are forever and always protecting their relationships with Republicans, with corporate overlords, and their captive upper middle class professional base. Those things are more important to them than actually protecting the country.
You said they would confirm someone like Garland.
Yeah there is 0.0% chance that Mitch confirms anyone who isn’t >65 and very moderate. Garland maybe, but I can’t begin to express what a huge mistake that kind of appointment would be. It legitimizes what they’ve already done without changing the balance of power at all… which is why Mitch will do that trade.
Honestly at this point my big issue with the ‘we can do business with Mitch now’ takes is that you’re willingly filling that guys trades. It’s become very obvious to me over the last ten years that Mitch taking a deal usually means you shouldn’t have done it.
Wait didn’t we literally just determine with absolute certainty that neither party will never again confirm a SCOTUS nominee unless that party holds both the Presidency and the Senate? Like, never, ever, ever again?
I’m just having trouble imagining Senate Republicans saying to themselves, “Man we are going to get KILLED if we don’t confirm Garland. Americans just are not going to stand for this”.