If HRC wins the WI,MI,PA in 2016 she wins. If Trump wins WI,AZ,GA in 2020 he wins. The margin in the three 2020 states was less than the margin of the 2016 states. That’s not cherry-picking.
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yep it’s misleading to compare Pennsylvania margin in 2016 to Pennsylvania margin in 2020 because Penn was Biden’s like 6th closest state vs Trump’s 3rd. This election was every bit as close as 2016
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MASSIVE FRAUD! RIGGED ELECTION! I WIN!!!
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Honestly I’m way more shook than before or during election. Things look grim as fuck.
I was listening to a podcast, forget which one, that was saying with redistricting you should expect republicans to be able to pick up 6-7 more house seats with that ALONE. Like not changing any votes. So we’re a massive, massive dog to win the house in 2022. Plus were due for a massive correction in the market, the economy is going to continue to be shit because of the rona.
Biden likely not gonna get shit done for 4 years. Supreme court gonna just pull our rights right out from under us, and we’re going to be in a super tough spot in 2024 having gotten little accomplished over 4 years.
Plus my long term hopes of just holding onto democracy until demographics shifted has been burned to the ground. We’re in a brand new political world
And it looks like dems are gonna run the same leadership and playbook that got us here.
I mean who knows, lots of shit can happen and maybe we get some lucky breaks. Vaccine rollout goes smoothly, economy comes roaring back, and we do some popular shit that lets us win both houses in 2022. Maybe we find a super popular candidate in 2024. Maybe we win both of the runoffs.
I still have hope, but just barely.
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As a formal clergyman of the church of dudeism (I’m serious, I married a couple with my credentials once), I approve this message
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Didn’t even mention Republicans will now be emboldened to crank up voter suppression and literally any other tactic to 1000. They will say its for election security, and moderates will understand even if they thought the last election was fair.
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Pennsylvania only got Biden to 270 because they took longer to count their votes because of the stupid laws there. That doesn’t make it any more important than GA, WI or AZ all of which Biden won by < 0.5%
Everything that delays the process gets me slightly more shook.
“Today’s meeting has been canceled as all counties have certified their election results. The Board of State Canvassers is scheduled to meet Nov. 23 to certify the Nov. 3 general election,” the Michigan Department of State said on Twitter.
Probably no big deal but JFC I want it to be over. All windows of opportunity for further bullshit need to be closing asap.
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Yes I think it’s reasonable to expect Dems will lose the House in '22 due to redistricting. People really underestimate how hardcore you can gerrymander with modern tools. The prior gerrymanders from 10 years ago were starting to wear off due to unexpected demographic and population shifts.
To me it’s pretty clear that Biden just needs to go HAM with borderline illegal exec orders and such. Trump supporters gave Trump a lot of credit for trying on the wall even if he didn’t build it.
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The Democratic Party is just wholly unprepared for this moment. Like you have 2 years to give the country a reason to vote for you and you’re gonna roll with Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Joe Biden? Average age of what, 78 or something? Let’s be honest, they’re not going to achieve anything. And while that may well be Mitch’s fault, they are entirely unprepared to forcefully message around that to win the 2022 election. These motherfuckers will spend more time complaining about AOC than messaging against Mitch. They’re going to get fucking rolled when they run with “the other guys are bad” again, and they’ll deserve it.
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I agree that is typically true for these type of cases - the main driver in taking them is prestige / currying favors and they’ll usually charge a discounted billing rate.
However, I would think that for an unpopular case, if you are willing to pay full billing rates, the law firms would still take the case. Here though, I suspect even if Trump/RNC/etc. offered that, they still wouldn’t find a taker due to the reputation hit.
False.
Trump margins in:
MI: 10.7K (0.23%)
WI: 22.7K (0.77%)
PA: 44.3K (0.72%)
Biden margins in:
MI: 146.9K (2.66%)
WI: 20.4K (0.62%)
PA: 82.9K (1.2%)
And PA is still counting and Biden will almost certainly open up a bigger margin. Biden didn’t need Wisconsin, either, and they were done counting first and called.
We did, because the votes outstanding in Milwaukee, Detroit, Philly and Pittsburgh always covered the deficit.
Not listening to those of us breaking down county level data and explaining then and now why FL didn’t indicate certain doom is what’s fucking stupid. One more time:
Miami-Dade has ~no correlation to the blue wall, NC, or GA.
Biden outperformed HRC and Obama in Okaloosa, which correlates to the Rust Belt.
Biden outperformed HRC in the suburbs, at least in the early returns (I never went back and checked again). This was a good indicator in my mind for other key suburbs.
I was saying NC and GA weren’t dead pretty early on and predicting close races. I would have guessed NC blue and GA red, but whatever. They weren’t dead and we got one.
Which we also didn’t need.
There is not a ton of correlation from Miami-Dade to other states’ Hispanic populations. Texas Hispanics swinging hard toward Trump was likely largely about Biden’s oil comments. NV and AZ were not correlated strongly, nor did I expect them to be.
Another reason I didn’t freak out over Florida.
Which is why I’ve been freaking out for most of the last four years.
Perhaps, but I’ve been waiting for the PA margin to cross into my predicted range to specifically @ a couple people who specifically called me out in the past for being wrong about it even though the math always checked out.
That led to a semi-derail.
It was always just a math problem. If you can’t see that…
Lol I recall you saying that, and something about a room with padded walls.
Exactly, but that apparently makes math guys like us factually stupid.
I wasn’t in that Discord I don’t think, but you pretty much admitted it in here plus you were more just freaking out. I don’t think you were telling those of us crunching numbers that we were stupid, I think you were just telling us the sky was on fire and falling.
I don’t think it was on here, I think it was IRL but I had a hilarious exchange with a friend. They were freaking out about early returns and I was explaining why we were in fine shape. They then said it was great that we were going to win OH and I informed them that we had no shot and sent them back into despair.
Texas was my big miss. Early returns there indicated a very close race, and I didn’t expect any correlation between TX Hispanic voters and Miami-Dade Hispanic voters. I don’t think there was, I think it was oil, but we lost a ton of Hispanic votes we needed in border counties.
It doesn’t make up the whole 5.8% but probably narrows the margin a couple %, I haven’t crunched the numbers.
I was hoping for that but mentally prepared to get swept and focus in on whether that meant we were in trouble in the old blue wall states or not, then react accordingly. Having money on the line probably helped me quite a bit because it made me prepare for the scenario in a serious way and pick out key counties to watch.
GA and NC needles overreacted to Miami-Dade. Eventually they settled in on reasonable numbers once results in those states were in. They probably just shouldn’t go live until X% of the vote from Y% of the counties is in.
No one is celebrating the overall outcome wrt the Senate or down ballot.
Your general point is accurate but nobody is a lock to do anything in 2024.
We did the math on the outstanding vote. Simple as that. We also didn’t need Wisconsin, which was the only one of the blue wall states that was razor thin.
No I know about half this place either thinks I’m a huge fucking asshole, thinks I’m a moron, or has me somewhere on a scale of mild dislike to hatred.
But when the guy who always freaks out is calm, it shouldn’t matter what you think of his usual opinions. It’s a relative matter, and it should make you less likely to freak out.
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He won back the 3 states that Hillary lost, and by bigger margins than Trump did
AND he won a few always-red states as well
So from that perspective it’s not so bad
But if you look at it from pre-2016 perspective as those 3 are blue states and so trump flipped those 3 in 2016 by more than Biden flipped the red states in 2020, then sure. So I get where you are coming from. But Georgia was always gonna be the slimmest flip if it happened. If looking from that pre-2016 perspective, flipping Georgia and Arizona is much harder than flipping the other 3.
Any way you look at it, we likely didn’t get the senate, we didn’t do well in state races or the house, and the worst president ever got 70M votes so WAAF
The only positive variance is that the R judges, state legislatures and Secretarys of State seem to have zero interest in stealing a decisive victory from Biden, something I wasn’t sure about before the election.
Everything else is grim as fuck.
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Yeah we are fucked in 2022
2018 was an anti-Trump blue wave
Losing that plus gerrymandering means 2022 is a lost house
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That’s exactly what happened. It’s similar in poker. Away from the table I obsess. What’s the best line in a certain spot? Is this guy running good against me or outplaying me? Does he have a tell on me? What does it mean when he shifts his weight in his chair? Is this other dude cheating? Is he working with someone?
At the table, the volume on all of that goes way down. I’m still paying attention to it, but I’m not freaking out, I’m predatory. I also seem to play my best in the biggest spots, I credit a lot of that to some reading/research that I’ve done on the subject.
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Honestly I don’t know, it’s clear they’re going to play politics and play the long game and not try anything too crazy to let the steam of stealing a supreme court seat out. So dems will have no interest in packing the court if they ever get able too, and they will dominate the court for 30 years and its death by a thousand cuts.
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I tend to do my freaking out about things before or after they happen. After is what happens when I get blindsided with me trying to figure out how to stop that from ever happening again. During I’m pretty calm and focused on executing the flow chart I freaked out about with as few mistakes as possible.
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I think I heard on Ezra Klein’s podcast today that Facebook registered 4.4 million voters this cycle? Philosophically I’m not against more people voting, but based on what I see about who is using Facebook for politics, I can’t help but think that was a significant blow to the Dems in some crucial areas.
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